Euro Could Go Lower From Here, Yu Says
Спикеры
Geoffrey Yu
— Старший стратег, BNY Mellon
Geoffrey Yu discusses US financial conditions, Treasury refunding risk, and volatility redistribution. He argues robust US real rates attract investors, European equity momentum can continue, and APAC currencies are favored FX trades. He also has high conviction that the euro can fall further against the dollar and crosses.
- The November 4 refunding is seen as a key test for whether Treasury actions loosen financial conditions.
- The Fed may need to offset Treasury-driven loosening if inflation remains above target.
- Robust US real rates are attracting domestic and international investors.
- Suppressed fixed income volatility can be redistributed into FX, equity, gold, and Bitcoin.
- APAC currencies such as the Korean won, Taiwan dollar, and yen are favored on current account surpluses.
- European equity momentum can continue because Europe is improving.
- The euro is expected to fall from current levels against the dollar and crosses.
Идеи
Robust real rates attract investors to Treasuries.
US yields are high but breakevens have not moved as much, so real rates remain robust. Domestic investors such as pension funds and LDI managers, as well as international investors, would want to own these robust real rates, and BNY is seeing that in its own data.
Gold, Bitcoin part of volatility redistribution.
Volatility cannot be artificially suppressed on a comprehensive basis; suppressing fixed income volatility tends to redistribute it into FX or equity volatility. Markets are therefore looking for other areas to hedge risk, and the moves in gold and Bitcoin are part of that dynamic.
APAC currencies favored for current account surpluses.
Geoffrey still likes APAC currencies as selective FX trades, favoring those with heavier current account surpluses. Korea is already performing, and he is looking at the Taiwan dollar and yen as other trades.
European equity momentum can continue.
Europe is actually improving, so the current momentum in European equity markets can continue from here.
Euro can fall versus dollar, crosses.
European equity strength does not imply a stronger euro. His high-conviction trade is that the euro comes off from current levels, not only against the dollar but also on the crosses.
Далее
This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 21, 2026, features Geoffrey Yu discussing TLT, GLD, BTC, APAC currencies, USD/KRW, TWD, FXY, VGK, FXE. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Geoffrey Yu · Tickers: TLT, GLD, BTC, APAC currencies, USD/KRW, TWD, FXY, VGK, FXE