Why Apple is Going to $400 | WAYT?
Спикеры
Josh Brown
— Генеральный директор, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Michael Batnick
— Управляющий партнер, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Josh Brown makes a bullish case for Apple reaching $400 on iPhone sales and AI services monetization. Michael Batnick warns against memory semiconductor stocks at extreme valuations and presents Hyatt as a luxury hotel play. The hosts also discuss the historically strong earnings-driven bull market, the importance of index construction for value and emerging market ETFs, and the HALO trade theme.
- Josh Brown is bullish on Apple (AAPL) with a $400 target, citing iPhone momentum, AI services toll-booth model, and foldable phone launch.
- Michael Batnick advises avoiding memory semiconductor stocks (Micron, Western Digital, Seagate) due to extreme valuations and peaking growth.
- Michael Batnick makes the case for Hyatt (H), repositioned as a luxury hotel company catering to high-income travelers.
- Josh Brown is also bullish on Tesla (TSLA), expecting a move to $500 driven by robotics and a potential SpaceX buyout.
- The S&P 500 is in a historically strong earnings-driven bull market, with double-digit growth for two consecutive years rarely leading to declines.
- Over 50% of tech stocks are in a bear market despite index highs, and memory names are experiencing steep drawdowns from lofty levels.
- Index construction differences are creating huge dispersion in value and emerging market ETFs (e.g., VLU vs Vanguard value, IEMG vs VWO) due to Korea’s classification.
- The HALO (heavy assets, low obsolescence) trade has been a key theme in 2025, but lacks a single investable vehicle.
Идеи
Apple to $400 on iPhone/AI strength.
Apple is breaking out to new highs with a price target of $400. Catalysts: iPhone 17 sales momentum, upcoming iPhone 18 Pro price increases offsetting memory costs, foldable iPhone launch with constrained supply, new CEO John Turnis, and the AI services monetization story. Siri will become the toll booth for LLMs, allowing Apple to collect fees regardless of which model consumers choose, across 2.5 billion devices. Earnings are expected to grow 17% this year and 9.8% next year, with services hitting record highs. Technicals are strong, with the stock holding its 200-day moving average and aggressive buyer accumulation.
Avoid memory stocks; extreme valuations, peak growth.
Memory chip stocks (Micron, Western Digital, Seagate) have experienced steep drawdowns but remain extremely extended above their 200-day moving averages. Samsung's 19-fold profit surge was not enough to satisfy investors, signaling peak growth expectations that will inevitably slow. Historically, buying a stock that is 200% above its 200-day moving average does not reward new investors, suggesting these names are too risky to enter at current levels and may be topping.
Bull market backed by earnings growth.
The current bull market is backed by a rare period of consecutive double-digit S&P 500 earnings growth. In 98 years of data, the market has only fallen five times when the current year and next year both had such strong earnings growth, and not once since 1994. This history suggests the bull run is likely to continue and fading the market would be a mistake.
Tesla to 500 on robot/SpaceX catalysts.
Tesla is set to rise from 400 to 500, with significant catalysts in the robotics division and the potential for SpaceX to acquire the company by year-end. These factors create upside beyond the current price.
Long Hyatt on luxury hotel repositioning.
Hyatt has transformed into a luxury-focused hotel company, with 47% of its portfolio now in luxury rooms (up from 32% in 2017) and the world's largest portfolio of luxury branded resort rooms. Luxury revenue per available room is growing strongly (8%) while standard room revenue is flat, as the top 10% of earners drive half of all consumer spending. The stock is trending higher and should continue to outperform.
Далее
This The Compound News video, published July 07, 2026, features Josh Brown, Michael Batnick discussing AAPL, MU, WDC, STX, SPY, TSLA, H. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Josh Brown, Michael Batnick · Tickers: AAPL, MU, WDC, STX, SPY, TSLA, H