Bloomberg Surveillance 7/15/2026

Смотреть на YouTube ↗ | 15 июля 2026, 16:34 | 2:24:24 | Bloomberg Markets

Спикеры

Steve Chiavarone — Главный стратег по акциям, Federated Hermes

Stefan Slowinski — Analyst, BNP Paribas

Gerard Cassidy — Глава стратегии по банковским акциям США, RBC Capital Markets

Anna Rosenberg — Analyst, Amundi

Ed Yardeni — Президент, Yardeni Research

Cameron Dawson — Директор по инвестициям, New Edge Wealth

The episode covers strong big bank earnings (BlackRock, BNY, Morgan Stanley) beating expectations amid robust trading and AI-driven capital markets. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies that inflation is not yet contained, easing immediate rate-hike fears. Geopolitical tensions rise with U.S. strikes on Iran and threats to energy infrastructure. AI hardware (ASML) surges while IBM tumbles on software spending shifts. Analysts offer bullish S&P 500 and semiconductor views, highlight cybersecurity winners, and recommend Bank of America. - BlackRock, BNY, Morgan Stanley post record revenue and asset beats, led by trading and AI issuance. - Fed Chair Warsh signals no urgency to cut rates, maintains mission not accomplished on inflation. - U.S. launches fifth day of strikes on Iran to degrade military capabilities, Strait of Hormuz tensions persist. - ASML lifts sales forecast on AI chip demand; IBM drops 25% as IT budgets reprioritize to hardware and cybersecurity. - Steve Chiavarone calls for S&P 500 to reach 9000 by year-end, driven by margin expansion and AI capex. - BNP Paribas analyst highlights cybersecurity beneficiaries Microsoft and ServiceNow, and recommends avoiding IBM. - RBC analyst picks Bank of America as top banking idea for summer. - New York issues first statewide moratorium on hyperscale data centers, raising AI infrastructure concerns.

Идеи

Steve Chiavarone Главный стратег по акциям, Federated Hermes 6:39

Chip trade has room to run.

AI capex continues to outstrip supply, and the chip trade has further room to run. The market is now revaluing chip stocks on long-term contracts, which will be volatile but positive as demand remains strong.

Steve Chiavarone Главный стратег по акциям, Federated Hermes 11:32

S&P 500 to hit 9000 by year-end.

Earnings growth is broad-based, margin expansion is at record rates, and the S&P 500's fair value multiple has increased to 20-22x due to a mix shift toward subscription models. The ongoing AI infrastructure build, bottlenecks, and pricing power support continued upside, driving the S&P 500 to 9000 by year-end.

Stefan Slowinski Analyst, BNP Paribas 33:07

IBM hurt by AI spending shifts.

IBM is facing a crowd-out effect as customers prioritize AI server and memory spending over mainframes, along with elevated cybersecurity spending. Additionally, IBM's own execution issues led to deal slippages. This combination makes IBM unattractive.

Stefan Slowinski Analyst, BNP Paribas 37:57

Microsoft leads in cybersecurity spending.

Cybersecurity is a durable growth driver, and Microsoft, as the largest cybersecurity company in the world, is well positioned to benefit from increased security spending.

Stefan Slowinski Analyst, BNP Paribas 37:57

ServiceNow boosts cyber and federal exposure.

ServiceNow performed well in BNP Paribas' reseller survey, recently closed the Armis deal adding cyber capabilities, and faces easier comparisons in U.S. federal business due to prior DOGE and shutdown effects. Cybersecurity growth adds further momentum.

Gerard Cassidy Глава стратегии по банковским акциям США, RBC Capital Markets 82:55

Bank of America is top summer pick.

Bank of America is the best pick heading into the summer, supported by strong capital markets activity, robust trading pipelines, and attractive positioning within the banking sector.