The VUCA World Is Here | Systematic Investor | Ep.398

The video discusses investing in a VUCA world defined by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. Mark Raspinski explains why geopolitical supply shocks create persistent trends beneficial for trend-following strategies, and presents research showing managed futures are uniquely invariant to risk regimes compared to other hedge fund strategies. - Mark and Niels introduce the concept of a VUCA world and uncharted territories in markets. - Trend-following strategies have performed well in April despite strong equity markets. - Supply shocks, like the Middle East oil disruption, are harder for central banks to manage and sustain trends. - Mark's research shows managed futures are insensitive to volatility regimes, unlike many hedge funds. - The conversation covers AI's potential use in sentiment analysis and replication of hedge fund strategies. - Niels notes that CTA fixed income positioning has shifted to short, reflecting bearish bond views. - Mark questions whether equity markets are properly discounting geopolitical risks, citing low VIX. - The episode closes with a discussion on pure vs. multi-strategy approaches and bundling of risk premia.