Capital Flows
· Capital Flows
· 01 сентября 2026, 13:48
· ⏱ 1 мин чтения
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Резюме
The author argues that shifting macroeconomic flows and positioning no longer support a bullish 'credit cycle melt-up' in equities. After spending a month holding cash and taking small long-side trades, the author's stance has officially flipped to bearish as S&P 500 futures hit a critical technical threshold.
•The author raised cash one month ago because macro flows no longer justified an aggressively bullish view on equities.
•The 7670 level in ES (S&P 500 futures) was identified as the specific trigger to flip the author's stance from neutral to bearish.
•A recent strategy of 'batting singles' yielded successful short-term trades, including buying gold and shorting volatility into NVDA earnings and Jackson Hole.
•The author explicitly notes that bonds remain skewed to the downside and are expected to stay below previous FOMC levels.
The macro backdrop and positioning have shifted, and hitting the 7670 level in ES futures has triggered a flip from a neutral, cash-heavy stance to a bearish stance.
The author's core thesis is that macro flows no longer justify a bullish view on equities, and the article's title explicitly states that 'dollar devaluation' is acting as a bearish catalyst for the a
The author's core thesis is that macro flows no longer justify a bullish view on equities, and the article's title explicitly states that 'dollar devaluation' is acting as a bearish catalyst for the asset class.
Risk: The credit cycle could unexpectedly re-accelerate, or dollar dynamics could stabilize, invalidating the bearish macro flow thesis.
The author reiterates a bearish macro view on fixed income, stating that bonds are skewed to the downside and will remain below the previous FOMC level.
The author reiterates a bearish macro view on fixed income, stating that bonds are skewed to the downside and will remain below the previous FOMC level.
Risk: A sudden risk-off event in equities could trigger a flight to safety, driving a bid into government bonds.
The author notes that the recent successful strategy of taking small long-side trades, which explicitly included buying gold, has 'now changed' as the market regime flips to bearish.
The author notes that the recent successful strategy of taking small long-side trades, which explicitly included buying gold, has 'now changed' as the market regime flips to bearish.
Risk: Dollar devaluation could continue to provide underlying structural support for gold despite the author's tactical shift away from long-side trades.
This newsletter, published September 01, 2026,
features Capital Flows
discussing ES=F, SPY, TLT, GLD.
4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.