Bloomberg Surveillance 4/29/2026

Смотреть на YouTube ↗ | 29 апреля 2026, 15:12 | 2:24:07 | Bloomberg Markets

Спикеры

Sarah Hunt — Главный рыночный стратег, Alpine Saxon Woods

Stuart Kaiser — Глава стратегии торговли акциями США, Citi

Shweta Khajuria — Analyst, Wolfe Research

George Goncalves — Глава отдела исследований, Blockworks

Tom Porcelli

The episode covers the extended US naval blockade of Iran and its impact on oil prices, the upcoming Fed decision and Jay Powell's uncertain future, and big tech earnings from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet. Guests debate whether oil will continue to rise, whether AI capex is justified, and whether the Fed can remain patient amid supply shocks. Key themes include the tension between high oil prices and equity resilience, the AI arms race among hyperscalers, and the political drama surrounding the Fed chair transition. - President Trump tells aides to prepare for an extended naval blockade of Iran, keeping oil prices elevated. - Brent crude rises for an eighth consecutive day, nearing $115; WTI also up. - Fed expected to hold rates steady; focus is on Powell's future and whether he stays as governor. - Big tech earnings after the bell: Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet; Wall Street looks for AI ROI. - OpenAI is reportedly struggling to meet sales targets, raising questions about AI capex sustainability. - Guests disagree on whether oil prices will continue to rise or if the spike is temporary. - Vertical integration is seen as a key advantage for Alphabet over OpenAI and Anthropic. - Economic data shows strength in durable goods and housing starts, complicating the Fed's outlook.

Идеи

George Goncalves Глава отдела исследований, Blockworks 10:11

Front-end bonds best risk/reward.

The best risk/reward in the bond market is being long front-end Treasuries. The Fed is unlikely to hike, the bar is very high, and the front-end offers attractive yields compared to the long end. The two-year yield is around 3.85%, and with the Fed on hold, short-dated Treasuries are a relatively safe bet.

Sarah Hunt Главный рыночный стратег, Alpine Saxon Woods 56:19

Oil prices stay high due blockade.

Oil prices will remain elevated due to the extended US naval blockade of Iran, which creates a supply shock from logistics issues. Even though the market views this as temporary, the blockade is likely to persist, keeping Brent crude high. The expectation is that prices will not drop rapidly until the logistics are resolved.

Stuart Kaiser Глава стратегии торговли акциями США, Citi 103:16

Oil to $118 in weeks.

Crude oil (WTI) will rise to $118 per barrel in the next two to four weeks. The extended blockade and supply constraints will push prices higher, and while equity markets are ignoring it for now, the oil price inflection is coming. This is a near-term bullish call based on Citi strategists' outlook.

Shweta Khajuria Analyst, Wolfe Research 114:55

Alphabet's vertical integration advantageous.

Alphabet (Google) has a structural advantage over competitors like OpenAI because it is vertically integrated with its own chips, cloud service, and Gemini AI model. As OpenAI struggles to meet sales targets, Google is well-positioned to gain market share, especially in the enterprise cloud and AI space. This positive view is supported by expectations of strong cloud growth and margin expansion.