20 Investment write-ups to look at

AI-резюме

=== SUMMARY === - The post is a compilation of 20 recent Substack investment write-ups sourced from Giles Capital. - It covers a wide range of global equities across the Americas, EMEA, and APAC, highlighting both bullish value plays and bearish cautionary tales. - Quality assessment: High-quality compilation of well-researched DD, providing clear fundamental metrics (P/E, FCF, margins) and specific catalysts for each thesis. === SENTIMENT === MIXED === TRADE IDEAS === SEM - LONG | confidence: 0.90 | sentiment: +0.85 Speaker: u/Away_Definition5829 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Semapa is Europe's lowest-cost paper producer trading at 11x P/E with a 14% FCF yield and €780m net cash. 2. THE BRIDGE: The market is undervaluing its cash generation and the 24% annual growth in its tissue segment. 3. THE VERDICT: A strong value buy ("TOP PICK") with a massive margin of safety provided by its net cash. 4. RISKS: Family-owned structure (82%) could lead to poor minority shareholder treatment or capital misallocation. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - Designated as a "TOP PICK" - Trades at 11x P/E with 14% FCF yield - Holds €780m in net cash - Tissue segment growing 24% annually 0700 - LONG | confidence: 0.90 | sentiment: +0.80 Speaker: u/Away_Definition5829 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Tencent trades at 12-15x P/E despite dominant gaming, payments, net cash, and WeChat's billion-plus users. 2. THE BRIDGE: The current valuation reflects a steep "China discount" that ignores the massive private investment portfolio and core cash generation. 3. THE VERDICT: A high-conviction value play ("TOP PICK") for investors willing to stomach geopolitical risks. 4. RISKS: Chinese regulatory crackdowns and geopolitical tensions (the "China discount"). Timeframe: long-term Key Points: - Designated as a "TOP PICK" - Cheap valuation at 12-15x P/E - Dominant ecosystem (WeChat, gaming) - Unpriced private investment portfolio GRG - AVOID | confidence: 0.80 | sentiment: -0.60 Speaker: u/Away_Definition5829 Th

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Another batch of Substack company write-ups, all published within the last week.   
  
Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation: [https://gilescapital.substack.com](https://gilescapital.substack.com)

# Americas

**longtermpick** on [**NVIDIA**](https://longtermpick.com/p/nvidia-analysis-2026) (🇺🇸 NVDA US - US$5tn) P/E 20.8x against a five-year average of 37.7x, with consensus expecting 44% EPS growth. Gross margins at 74% are real. The AI capex cycle still runs through this company.

**alphaseeker84** on [**Microsoft and Meta**](https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/same-ai-bill-opposite-verdicts-metamsft) (🇺🇸 MSFT US, 🇺🇸 META US - US$3.1tn, US$1.7tn) Same AI bill, opposite verdicts. Microsoft: Azure up 43% but the stock fell 12% on capex guidance. Meta: cash flow collapsed 91% to $784 million, buybacks suspended, $24.9 billion in new debt.

**tacticzhazel** on [**Microsoft**](https://tacticzhazel.substack.com/p/quick-thoughts-on-microsoft-earnings) (🇺🇸 MSFT US - US$3.1tn) A second take on Microsoft, focused on the cash. Free cash flow is contracting once you strip out working capital, even as Azure grows 43%. The headline beats obscure the full picture.

**hatedmoats** on [**Netflix**](https://hatedmoats.substack.com/p/netflix-deep-dive-analysis) 🔒 (🇺🇸 NFLX US - US$287bn) Down 40% from peak, still at 22.9x P/E and 21.9x EV/EBIT, with 13% revenue growth as the bull case. Insider selling is the flag.

**rijnberkinvestinsights** on [**ServiceNow**](https://rijnberkinvestinsights.substack.com/p/servicenow-the-market-is-selling) (🇺🇸 NOW US - US$97bn) Selling off on AI substitution fears, but 98% customer retention and 16.5x free cash flow multiple argue for durability. The agentic AI orchestration angle reframes the risk. Still 66x P/E.

**SixSigmaResearch** on [**Bloom Energy**](https://sixsigmaresearch.com/p/bloom-energy-corp-earnings-update) (🇺🇸 BE US - US$61bn) Earnings update. Q2 revenue $1.1 billion, up 165% year on year. FY guidance $3.9-4.2 billion. Stock up 1,200% in twelve months at 185x P/E.

**thedutchinvestors** on [**Perimeter Solutions**](https://thedutchinvestors.substack.com/p/free-gift-premium-perimeter-solutions) (🇺🇸 PRM US - \~US$3bn) North American monopoly in aerial fire retardants, 57% gross margins. The catch: a 1.5% fixed plus 18% variable founder fee pulling $435 million annually from shareholders. GAAP unprofitable.

**valuedontlie** on [**Resideo Technologies**](https://www.valuedontlie.com/p/quick-value-324-resideo-adi-global) (🇺🇸 REZI US - \~US$2bn) Spinning off its ADI Global distribution arm, which some think unlocks $38-46 in combined value against a current $35 price. High leverage is the risk. The thesis is entirely event-driven.

**p14capital** on [**The RealReal**](https://p14capital.substack.com/p/real-the-realreal-inc) (🇺🇸 REAL US - \~US$1.5bn) Luxury resale marketplace, 2.3x EV/sales, 13% revenue growth, path to 13.5% EBITDA margins by 2028. Net debt minimal. Not cheap at 24x EV/EBITDA, but the execution thesis is clearly mapped.

**theoakbloke** on [**Helix Exploration**](https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/grg-gy-soggy-underwater-shorter) (🇬🇧 HEX LN - US$105m) Niche helium producer on AIM, still pre-profit, extracting at 99.999% purity with demand growing 6% annually. Dilution risk acknowledged. Oak Bloke is rotating out of Greggs into this.

**wolfofoakville** on [**AirIQ**](https://www.wolfofoakville.com/p/airiq-inc-iqv-fins-review-e3a) (🇨🇦 IQ.V - CAD$\~15m) Author's verdict: bearish. 91% recurring revenue, 59.8% gross margins, debt-free. But P/E over 40x and 30-day average volume around 143,000 shares makes entry nearly impossible.

# Europe, Middle East &amp; Africa

**thedutchinvestors** on [**LVMH**](https://thedutchinvestors.substack.com/p/lvmh-q2-2026-earnings-update) (🇫🇷 MC PA - \~€210bn) Earnings update. Q2 organic revenue up 3%, Wine and Spirits up 11%. Operating margins at 22.5% with €8.25 billion net cash. Arnault family controls 63%.

**theoakbloke** on [**Unite Group**](https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/this-is-one-utg-ly-mutha) (🇬🇧 UTG LN - £2bn) Trades at a 36% discount to NAV, with the Renters' Rights Act squeezing competitor supply. High leverage is the catch: net debt at 7.5x EBITDA post the Empiric acquisition.

**smallvalue** on [**Semapa**](https://smallvalue.substack.com/p/semapa) 🔒 (🇵🇹 SEM LS - \~€2bn) TOP PICK Europe's lowest-cost paper producer, accessed through its 82%-family-owned parent at 11x P/E and 14% FCF yield. €780m net cash post-cement sale. Tissue growing 24% annually. Paywalled, but earns it.

**1trueinvesting** on [**Greggs**](https://1trueinvesting.substack.com/p/greggs-lon-grg-h1-2026-results) (🇬🇧 GRG LN - \~£700m) Volumes declining and lease costs rising, with 36.5x P/E making the upside hard to argue. One source exited. Another is still watching. Cautionary entry on a UK high-street name.

**ppinvest007** on [**U.C.A. Aktiengesellschaft**](https://ppinvest007.substack.com/p/uca-aktiengesellschaft-what-happens) (🇩🇪 UCA1 GR - €50m) Net cash of €45 million against a €50 million market value. Special dividend expected spring 2027. Near-zero daily volume on Frankfurt Exchange. Size positions accordingly.

# Asia-Pacific

**coughlincap** on [**Tencent Holdings**](https://coughlincap.com/p/what-is-the-price-of-being-chinese) (🇨🇳 0700 HK - US$530bn) TOP PICK 12-15x P/E for WeChat's billion-plus daily users, dominant gaming, payments, net cash, and a private investment portfolio the market barely prices. The China discount is the price of entry.

**angsanaanderson** on [**ENN Energy Holdings**](https://www.angsanaanderson.com/p/enn-energy-parent-offered-80-share) (🇨🇳 2688 HK - US$7bn) Chinese gas utility at 8x P/E and 7% dividend. Its parent is formally offering to buy out 80% of remaining shares, with regulatory approvals progressing. The buyout is the thesis.

**Japan Investing** on [**Human Made**](https://japaninvesting.substack.com/p/human-made-456ajp) (🇯🇵 456A JP - US$800m) Japanese streetwear brand at 42-50x P/E, with ¥5.9 billion net cash and 64% insider ownership. Author rates fair to rich. A potential UNDERCOVER brand acquisition adds speculative optionality.

**JPARCVUE** on [**REALGATE**](https://jparcvue.substack.com/p/realgate-5532-the-only-adaptive-reuse) (🇯🇵 5532 JP - US$153m) Japanese adaptive-reuse developer at 35.9x P/E, 31x EV/EBIT, and a debt ratio of 2.8x. Altman Z-score at 1.02 puts it in technical distress territory. A cautionary entry.

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