u/Far-East-locker ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· August 04, 2026 at 01:24
· ⬆ 16 pts
· 💬 28 comments
| View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary
Summary
Author argues NVO is deeply undervalued via DCF, FCFE, and Graham models, with fair value in the triple digits.
Thesis: Despite market share losses and margin compression, the GLP-1 oral pill franchise is beating LLY, and brand loyalty remains strong even in patent-expired markets.
Quality: Moderately researched DD with a high-conviction turnaround narrative, but model assumptions are not shown.
Score16
Comments28
Upvote %81%
▶ Full Post Text
I ran the DCF, FCFE, and Ben Graham formulas, all indicate fair value is well into triple digits.
Yes, they are losing market share.
Yes, margins are compressing.
However, isn't the turnaround story real?
The pill prescription numbers are not only promising, it is crushing LLY. However, NVO being NVO, they didn't go around and make PR news about it.
Even in markets where patents have expired, like China and India, sales haven't been affected much. People are still willing to pay a premium for the name brand instead of generic.
Yet, the stock keeps getting punished.
Author’s DCF/FCFE/Graham models imply triple-digit fair value, and oral prescription numbers are crushing LLY. If the turnaround is real, the market’s continued punishment of NVO creates a mispricing opportunity. Long NVO as an undervalued turnaround play while sentiment remains negative. Continued share loss, deeper margin compression, generic erosion in emerging markets, or failed execution could invalidate the thesis.
This Reddit post, published August 04, 2026,
features u/Far-East-locker
discussing NVO.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.