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I’ve been tracking Congressional STOCK Act filings, executive branch OGE Form 278-T disclosures, [USASpending.gov](http://USASpending.gov) contract awards, institutional ETF flows. All public data. The idea is to spot trends in the data and then research the tickers that are coming up. I’ve been avoiding large cap defence stock as past back testing had indicated that large contracts for the likes of LMT/NOC/RTX are mostly priced in.
Instead, I’ve been focusing on mid cap defence stocks that are likely to get tailwinds from large amounts of US spending. All back testing was carried out on all DoD contracts over $50,000,000 within the last 3 years
Here are my findings for BAH, LDOS, BWXT, PSN and AVAV
**BAH** **–** Trump bought March 25^(th) – Contract awarded $7.5B June 8^(th) – likely alfa over SPY after contract:
|**Ticker**|**Events**|**T+30 alpha**|**T+30 hit%**|**T+90 alpha**|**T+90 hit%**|**Rating**|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|BAH|494|\+4.6%|100%|\+4.0%|86%|★★ MODERATE|
**LDOS -** Trump bought March 30^(th) – Congress were selling regularly but this stoped Oct 2025– Contract awarded $10.5B June 8^(th) – likely alpha over SPY after contract:
|**Ticker**|**Events**|**T+30 alpha**|**T+30 hit%**|**T+90 alpha**|**T+90 hit%**|**Rating**|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|LDOS|492|\+5.0%|100%|\+9.4%|100%|★★★ STRONG|
**BWXT** – Khanna, Delaney and McClain bought between March and April – Contract awarded $5.8B June 8^(th) – likely alpha over SPY after contract:
|**Ticker**|**Events**|**T+30 alpha**|**T+30 hit%**|**T+90 alpha**|**T+90 hit%**|**Rating**|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|BWXT|351|\+3.4%|69%|4.9%|12%|★★ MODERATE|
**PSN –** No Presidential or Congressional buys – Contract awarded $1.3B June 8^(th) – Likely alpha over SPY after contract:
|**Ticker**|**Events**|**T+30 alpha**|**T+30 hit%**|**T+90 alpha**|**T+90 hit%**|**Rating**|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|PSN|471|\+2.1%|64%|7.1%|83%|★★ MODERATE|
**AVAV** \- Cisneros 4× BUY Oct 25–Mar 26 - COO Robert Smith: 1,800 shares, $349.9K, 21 Apr 2026 - CAO Brian Shackley: 707 shares, $149.4K, 19 Mar 2026 – Contract awarded $1B June 8^(th) \- Likely alpha over SPY after contract:
|**Ticker**|**Events**|**T+30 alpha**|**T+30 hit%**|**T+90 alpha**|**T+90 hit%**|**Rating**|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|AVAV|159|\+4.5%|53%|\+1.1%|54%|★★ MODERATE|
So, to summarise, all of these companies show alpha over SPY on back test when they receive a DoD contract. They all received a contract of a fairly large amount 2 days ago. They all show buying signals from either the President, Congress or company insiders, sometimes several of these at the same time.
Disclosure – I hold 527 shares in PSN – I do not hold shares in any of the other tickers mentioned, however that may change soon.
This is not meant to be financial advice. I am not a financial professional. Please do your own research.