Nokia DD

AI-резюме

=== SUMMARY === - The author argues Nokia (NOK) is transitioning from a legacy telecom hardware firm to an AI infrastructure and defense player, warranting a higher PE multiple. - They cite a potential price target of ~$26.8 based on a low-end AI infrastructure PE of 54 (vs. current PE ~26), plus upside from future AI-RAN and 6G monetization. - The author holds a very large long position (35,403 shares + call options), indicating strong personal conviction. - Quality assessment: Moderately well-researched DD with fundamental valuation reasoning, but leans speculative due to lacking hard revenue/earnings projections and reliance on a narrative re-rating. === SENTIMENT === BULLISH === TRADE IDEAS === NOK - LONG | confidence: 0.90 | sentiment: +0.90 Speaker: u/DePoots Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Nokia’s current PE of 26 is far below AI infrastructure peers (Ciena 216, Arista 54), and the company is actively expanding into defense (5G/6G, partnerships with Lockheed, Nvidia, US government). 2. THE BRIDGE: If the market re-rates Nokia to the low end of AI infrastructure valuations (PE 54), the stock would trade at ~$26.8, representing ~100% upside from $13.4. 3. THE VERDICT: The author sees a compelling asymmetric bet on a valuation multiple expansion driven by identity shift, with further optionality from emerging AI-RAN/6G revenue. 4. RISKS: Transition may fail to materialize in earnings; competition from Ericsson, Huawei, or new entrants; defense contracts may be lumpy; macro headwinds to capex spending. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - PE re-rating from telecom to AI/defense peer group - Large insider-sized position adds conviction - Defense partnerships with US gov, Lockheed, Nvidia - AI-RAN/6G could unlock new revenue streams - Risks: execution, competition, macro slowdown === COMMENTS SUMMARY === The only top comment is a humorous remark about Nokia launching a brick phone to flex on iPhone users, providing no counter-arguments or additional data. The community ove

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# Why Nokia

Nokia has made a shift from a legacy hardware manufacturer to an AI and Defence player. The stock price has began correcting, but still lags behind.

# PE Valuation

Nokias current PE is sitting at 26 with the price of $13.4. It has taken a move away from its previous telecom equipment valuation, which had comparables such as Ericsson sitting at 17. It’s currently shifting towards an optical infrastructure valuation, which leaves comparables such as ciena (216 PE) and Arista networks (54 PE). Right now Nokia is sitting in the transition phase, where we are left waiting to see where its valuation lands.

If we see the rewrite landing us on the low side of 54, that brings us to the potential price of \~$26.8, as long as development continues and Nokia is taken seriously as an AI infrastructure player. As of now, most people still struggle to see it as more than just a telecoms company, or an old phone company. If it does break away from its previous identity, I do see the rewrite of its AI valuation playing out.

# The Defence sector.

Nokia has made a large shift towards the Defence sector, currently using 5G and AI, and will continue to develop themselves in this space Via 6G and AI-RAN.

They have a dedicated branch (Nokia Federal Solution) that is dedicated to serving the US government.

Their current defence partnerships are the US government, Lockheed Martin, NVDA, and Motorola (UK defence development)

# What comes next

As for what comes after, I don’t think it’s really possible to put a price target on AI-RAN yet. If it is successful at what it aims to do, they will not only operate as an AI foundation, but also as an AI supplier via the 6G network centres if they achieve their goal. We will see a brand new revenue stream similar to cloud monetization. It’s impossible to put a price target on it, because we have no comparable, and it will be the first of its kind.

If everything goes to plan, we could potentially see the $26.8 rewrite in the somewhat near future, with the potential of going much higher depending on how AI-RAN and partnerships play out.

# Positions

https://preview.redd.it/q9ikzatehezg1.png?width=1179&amp;format=png&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=c7c9015035fa3006f176824ef8408211516541ae

35,403 shares

 288x $10JAN28 

123x $15JAN28

I will also be adding more throughout the revaluation.

NFA.

Godspeed.

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Идеи

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