=== SUMMARY ===
- The post analyzes Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) after a strong earnings beat, noting it trades at historically low multiples despite 20% revenue growth and 74% Q1 FCF growth.
- The author compares the 2022 trough to now, arguing that stock price (+250%) has underperformed FCF growth (+295%), providing a margin of safety, but acknowledges it could fall further.
- Quality assessment: Well-reasoned DD with fundamental metrics (FCF yield, EBITDA growth) and historical comparison; acknowledges risks, making it a thoughtful value analysis.
=== SENTIMENT ===
BULLISH
=== TRADE IDEAS ===
ISRG - LONG | confidence: 0.60 | sentiment: +0.30
Speaker: u/iloveaccounting64
Thesis:
1. THE FACT: ISRG’s FCF grew 74% in Q1 2026, and TTM FCF yield is 1.7% on a $170B market cap; stock price has risen 250% vs. FCF growth of 295% from the 2022 trough.
2. THE BRIDGE: This relative underperformance of price vs. fundamentals creates a potential re-rating opportunity if growth continues, offering a margin of safety even if sector headwinds persist.
3. THE VERDICT: The author sees a reasonable risk/reward at current levels, with valuation at multi-year lows, suggesting a medium-term long entry for patient investors.
4. RISKS: Further sector-wide diagnostic/med-tech drawdowns; macro slowdown impacting procedure volumes; chart support failure below $440 could trigger more selling.
Timeframe: medium-term
Key Points:
- FCF yield 1.7% with 20% revenue growth.
- Stock price lagged FCF growth vs 2022 trough.
- Valuation at lowest multiples in years.
- Risk of catching falling knife acknowledged.
- Author waits for $440 for higher yield.
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▶ Полный текст поста
Not your average value investing name but the reason why I even mention it is the med tech sector has been beaten down so much this year from various headwinds including Covid cliff for diagnostics.
For ISRG itself, it’s been trading at lowest mults in years recently. Following the recent impressive earnings beat and good guidance which rallied the stock 8%.
I actually don’t hate the valuation too much now. It’s not cheap but reasonable for its growth profile. This means the risk reward is there but I could be risking myself to catch a falling knife here.
This is the numbers which I like: 1.7% fcf yield for a 170 billion market cap company growing topline at 20% and ebitda/eps both at around \~25% ttm. Since q1 2025, the fcf growth each quarter has been 50%+ with the most recent q1 fcf growing 74%.
And if we compare the trough in 2022 vs now. The stock price is up roughly 250% vs. fcf growth in the same period of roughly (2022 annual comparing with TTM) of 295%. And I am talking about the lowest bottom of 2022 where people are pricing in the worst to happen - the fundamentals now are much better but the stock price growth still underperformed the fcf growth for the same period - even when compared to the actual bottom in the last 5 years. So I see this as my margin of safety.
Can it go lower, possibly. If you are a chart reader the bigger support is probably at around $440 a share where fcf yield is closer to 1.85%. But it certainly looks attractive to me.
The only thing is, I want to hear from investors who followed this name for a long time. What do you think about my analysis? At what price would you go all in? Are there any short term/medium term catalyst that might excite you?
ISRG’s FCF grew 74% in Q1 2026, and TTM FCF yield is 1.7% on a $170B market cap; stock price has risen 250% vs. FCF growth of 295% from the 2022 trough. This relative underperformance of price vs. fundamentals creates a potential re-rating opportunity if growth continues, offering a margin of safety even if sector headwinds persist. The author sees a reasonable risk/reward at current levels, with valuation at multi-year lows, suggesting a medium-term long entry for patient investors. Further sector-wide diagnostic/med-tech drawdowns; macro slowdown impacting procedure volumes; chart support failure below $440 could trigger more selling.
This Reddit post, published April 24, 2026,
features u/iloveaccounting64
discussing ISRG.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.