Just a reminder of the Trump playbook

=== SUMMARY === - The post outlines an 8-step geopolitical playbook the author attributes to former President Trump, specifically regarding escalating tensions with Iran. - The author's thesis is that Trump intentionally follows a cycle of escalation and de-escalation to create market volatility, which culminates in a "deal" that causes a rapid repositioning and rally in asset prices. - Quality assessment: Speculation. This is a narrative-driven political analysis with no financial data, charts, or fundamental analysis of specific assets. It projects a pattern based on past events onto a current, fluid geopolitical situation. === SENTIMENT === MIXED === TRADE IDEAS === SPY - LONG | confidence: 0.60 | sentiment: +0.30 Speaker: u/IvoryTowerResident Thesis: 1. THE FACT: The author's described playbook culminates in Step 8 ("The Deal"), where a resolution is reached that is "a lot better than what markets expect," causing asset prices to reposition rapidly higher. 2. THE BRIDGE: If one believes the conflict is currently in Step 7 (extreme threats), then the next phase is a negotiated resolution and a market rally. This suggests buying the fear or sell-off that occurs during Steps 5-7. 3. THE VERDICT: The implied trade is to be positioned long equities (SPY) in anticipation of a de-escalation deal, which would spark a relief rally. 4. RISKS: The playbook may not apply; the conflict could escalate into a wider war (invalidating Step 8); the deal could be unfavorable or take much longer than expected; markets may have already priced in an outcome. Timeframe: short-term / medium-term Key Points: - Anticipate deal after escalation - Market relief rally on resolution - Geopolitical volatility as opportunity - High risk of thesis being wrong === COMMENTS SUMMARY === The top comments overwhelmingly counter the author's thesis. The main arguments are that Iran has significant leverage, making Trump's playbook ineffective; that the conflict is prolonged and worsening with no c