u/IvoryTowerResident 5.0 1 idea

The author's described playbook culminates in Step 8 ("The Deal"), where a resolution is reached that is "a lot better than what markets expect," causing asset prices to reposition rapidly higher. If one believes the conflict is currently in Step 7 (extreme threats), then the next phase is a negotiated resolution and a market rally. This suggests buying the fear or sell-off that occurs during Steps 5-7. The implied trade is to be positioned long equities (SPY) in anticipation of a de-escalation deal, which would spark a relief rally. The playbook may not apply; the conflict could escalate into a wider war (invalidating Step 8); the deal could be unfavorable or take much longer than expected; markets may have already priced in an outcome.