The New Map of AI Power

Смотреть на YouTube ↗ | 20 августа 2026, 23:14 | 7:57 | Morgan Stanley

Спикеры

Stephen Byrd — Глобальный руководитель исследований тематического и устойчивого развития, Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley's Ariana Salvatore and Stephen Byrd discuss AI sovereignty, US and China approaches, and the investment implications of a more fragmented AI ecosystem. They argue sovereign AI reinforces the AI capex cycle by making infrastructure more redundant and capital-intensive. Key beneficiaries include semiconductors, data centers, networking, power, cloud, cybersecurity, and infrastructure software, with specific advantages for collocation operators and behind-the-meter or off-grid power. China's push for a lower-cost indigenous AI ecosystem is flagged as a structural shift to monitor. - AI sovereignty involves government control over compute, data, energy, and technology amid rising geopolitical tensions. - The US is pursuing a middle path between security guardrails and global AI reach, while China is building an indigenous AI ecosystem. - Fragmentation could make AI infrastructure more duplicated, capital-intensive, and potentially inflationary. - Named beneficiaries include semiconductors, data centers, networking, power, cloud, cybersecurity, and infrastructure software. - Localization and data-sovereignty needs specifically favor collocation operators. - Energy constraints and grid pressures increase interest in behind-the-meter and off-grid power solutions. - Sovereign AI is framed as reinforcing the multiyear AI capex cycle rather than undermining it.

Идеи

Stephen Byrd Глобальный руководитель исследований тематического и устойчивого развития, Morgan Stanley 2:26

China AI ecosystem may widen adoption abroad.

China is pursuing indigenous self-sufficiency across the AI stack, from chips and computing infrastructure to cloud and models. US-China bifurcation may increase China's incentive to build a larger China-compatible AI ecosystem abroad, especially in the global south, using lower-cost models, open-weight ecosystems, subsidized compute, cloud partnerships, and infrastructure exports.

Stephen Byrd Глобальный руководитель исследований тематического и устойчивого развития, Morgan Stanley 4:17

Sovereign AI fragmentation boosts infrastructure beneficiaries.

AI sovereignty fragmentation makes the system more redundant and capital-intensive because the same level of AI demand may require duplicated, localized physical infrastructure. Morgan Stanley research sees potential beneficiaries across semiconductors, data centers, networking, power, cloud, cybersecurity, and infrastructure software.

Stephen Byrd Глобальный руководитель исследований тематического и устойчивого развития, Morgan Stanley 4:28

Localization boosts collocation operators.

Local hosting and data-sovereignty requirements push workloads into specific jurisdictions, increasing demand for geographically distributed data center capacity. Collocation operators can benefit because they provide the power, cooling, space, security, and interconnection needed to keep workloads in-country.

Stephen Byrd Глобальный руководитель исследований тематического и устойчивого развития, Morgan Stanley 5:00

Power constraints favor behind-the-meter and off-grid solutions.

AI compute requires reliable and affordable electricity, but data center growth is raising concerns about power prices and local grid infrastructure. That political constraint creates pressure to protect ratepayers and increases interest in low-cost power and behind-the-meter or off-grid power solutions that let data centers secure electricity without pressuring the grid.