"It's Okay if Interest Rates Rise" The Direction of the US Stock Market in the Second Half is Already Decided? | Moon Nam-joong, Chief Research Analyst at Daishin Securities Research Center

Summary

Moon Nam-joong discusses the outlook for the US stock market in the second half of the year, arguing that the upward trend remains intact despite recent volatility. He points to falling inflation, which is now below the Fed's policy rate, and exceptionally strong Q2 earnings as key drivers for continued market growth. He also dismisses concerns about an AI investment bubble, emphasizing that the AI revolution is still in its early stages and will continue to benefit the semiconductor supply chain.

• US equities are expected to maintain an upward trajectory as inflation falls below the Fed's policy rate.
• Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 have vastly exceeded expectations, making market valuations attractive.
• The Communication Services and IT sectors are leading earnings growth and remain top picks for the second half.
• Concerns over an AI investment bubble are premature, as the AI revolution is only in its third year.
• South Korean semiconductor companies like SK hynix and Samsung Electronics remain attractive due to strong exports and shareholder returns.
• The historical market correction associated with US midterm elections has likely already been priced in during earlier months.