Bloomberg Surveillance 8/28/2026

Смотреть на YouTube ↗ | 28 августа 2026, 15:39 | 2:24:19 | Bloomberg Markets

Спикеры

Peter Tchir — Глава макростратегии, Academy Securities

Shweta Khajuria — Analyst, Wolfe Research

Priya Misra — Портфельный менеджер, J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Gene Munster — Управляющий партнер, Deepwater Asset Management

Mark Cabana — Со-глава стратегии по краткосрочным ставкам США, BofA Securities

Subadra Rajappa — Глава отдела исследований, Societe Generale

Matt Orton — Главный рыночный стратег, Raymond James

Claudia Sahm — Экономист, Совет управляющих ФРС

Patrick Harker — Former President, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Seth Carpenter — Morgan Stanley Global Chief Economist & Macro Strategy Head

Jeannette Lowe — Analyst, Strategas

The episode focuses on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech with markets watching whether he clarifies the inflation fight, reaction function, and long-end Treasury stress. Guests debate whether the Fed should hold, hike, or rely on Treasury operations to stabilize long bonds. The program also covers Nvidia and Alphabet AI opportunities, corporate credit supply, North American energy, and US-Canada trade tensions. - Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole debut is the main risk event, with long-end Treasury yields acting as the market scoreboard. - Peter Tchir argues the Fed will hold rates this year and cut next year, while later guests debate possible hikes. - Mark Cabana and Subadra Rajappa frame the long-end Treasury move as a Fed credibility and global catch-up issue. - Shweta Khajuria sees Alphabet's cloud and TPU sales as underappreciated. - Gene Munster and Matt Orton remain bullish on Nvidia and broader AI semiconductor supply-chain names. - Priya Misra and Matt Orton favor investment-grade credit and income opportunities if Treasury yields reach 5%. - Peter Tchir also highlights North American energy buildout and Canada's need for more domestic refining and pipelines. - US-Canada trade talks show openings but remain politically driven and uncertain for investors.

Идеи

Peter Tchir Глава макростратегии, Academy Securities 7:21

Fed holds then cuts; front-end lower.

He expects the Fed to hold rates through year-end and then cut 50-75bp next year, putting front-end rates between 2.75% and 3.00%; real-time rent data already below 2% undermines the market's fixation on older inflation prints and rate hikes.

Peter Tchir Глава макростратегии, Academy Securities 9:00

Ten-year at 5% attracts buyers.

A coordinated Fed/Treasury Operation Twist that buys the long end and reduces duration supply could bring yields down and would make sense; if officials take that shot, any widening would be short-lived as investors hoover up long-duration paper.

Peter Tchir Глава макростратегии, Academy Securities 10:46

Buy investment-grade and hyperscaler debt.

Record investment-grade and hyperscaler debt issuance is being absorbed by investors keeping powder dry; new issues look attractive and cheap, and he expects buyers to hoover up supply after any short-lived widening.

Peter Tchir Глава макростратегии, Academy Securities 22:01

Canada should build home energy capacity.

Countries must prepare for more energy at home; Canada should fast-track refining and pipelines instead of relying on U.S. refiners, creating a 3-5 year North American energy investment buildout.

Shweta Khajuria Analyst, Wolfe Research 31:09

Alphabet cloud and TPU sales underappreciated.

Alphabet is outperforming because Google Cloud and TPU chip sales are still underappreciated; her estimates are 34% above Street on cloud, 6% above on EPS, and TPU demand is high in a capacity-constrained environment, while debt markets mean no equity raise is needed.

Priya Misra Портфельный менеджер, J.P. Morgan Asset Management 60:09

Prefer credit and mortgage duration.

Duration is starting to look attractive but she prefers taking it in credit and mortgages because the extra spread provides cushion if 10-year yields reach 5% and other assets sell off.

Subadra Rajappa Глава отдела исследований, Societe Generale 107:05

Avoid long-end bonds; yields catch up.

Global bond yields still have catching up to do because inflation is firm and central banks including the Fed are behind; she is more nervous about owning the long end and would not buy it yet.

Gene Munster Управляющий партнер, Deepwater Asset Management 113:20

Nvidia revenue can still grow 90%.

Nvidia will likely grow revenue about 90% next year to more than $700 billion; customers cannot get enough inference capacity, chip speed gives pricing leverage, and non-hyperscaler demand is diversifying revenue, so the AI buildout is still in its third inning.

Matt Orton Главный рыночный стратег, Raymond James 140:07

Buy equity volatility on solid fundamentals.

Warsh-driven volatility is a good buying opportunity because U.S. economic fundamentals remain solid, earnings season was strong, and there are broad opportunities across the equity market.

Matt Orton Главный рыночный стратег, Raymond James 141:35

Buy AI supply-chain and memory pullbacks.

AI memory names and supply-chain components failed to rally after Nvidia's blowout earnings partly on tariff uncertainty, creating long-term buying opportunities after 35-50% drawdowns; upcoming Micron earnings could be a positive binary event.