European natural gas prices face upside pressure.
European natural gas prices should face continued upside pressure because LNG deliveries into Europe are down about 20% year-on-year due to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, removing roughly a fifth of global LNG supply. Europe is not rushing to refill and has not set hard inventory targets like after the Ukraine invasion, so lower inventories will drain further and force future natural gas prices higher, raising costs for European consumers and fueling inflation.
Diesel market tightening on supply disruptions.
Diesel prices are at multi-week highs and the diesel market should remain tight because Ukrainian attacks are increasingly knocking out Russian refining capacity and exports, while Middle East diesel and energy flows are also disrupted through Hormuz. With winter heating demand increasing and diesel serving as the workhorse fuel for transport and industry, diesel cracks and producer profits are rising with no clear let-up in supply losses.