Bloomberg Surveillance 6/26/2026

Смотреть на YouTube ↗ | 26 июня 2026, 16:09 | 2:24:19 | Bloomberg Markets

Спикеры

Cameron Dawson — Директор по инвестициям, New Edge Wealth

Alex Altman — Глобальный руководитель по акциям, тактические стратегии, Barclays

Jonathan Krinsky — Главный рыночный технический аналитик, BTIG

Russ Brownback — BlackRock

Vivek Arya — Аналитик, BofA Securities

Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi — Директор по инвестициям, UBS Global Wealth Management

Sarah Kunst — Основатель, Cleo Capital

Annmarie Hordern — Репортер, Bloomberg

Dani Burger — Ведущий, Bloomberg Television

Claudia Sahm — Экономист, Совет управляющих ФРС

Eddie Fishman — Совет по международным отношениям

Marvin Loh — Глобальный старший макро-стратег, State Street

Greg Daco — Главный экономист, EY-Parthenon

The episode focuses on the AI investment boom and its market fallout: hyperscaler capex is pressuring their margins while chipmakers like Micron capture massive earnings. A rotation into value and small-cap sectors is underway, but technical risks from leveraged ETFs and a potential narrative shift threaten the AI trade. The Fed debate intensifies as oil prices plunge and the labor market holds steady, with guests split on rate hikes versus cuts. Geopolitical concerns around Iran's Strait of Hormuz and a delayed OpenAI IPO add to uncertainty. - AI infrastructure spending creates a massive wealth transfer from hyperscalers to chipmakers like Micron, NVIDIA, Broadcom. - Micron's 85% margins signal pricing power but raise fears of demand destruction for customers. - Investors rotate out of Magnificent Seven into regional banks, biotech, and small-cap industrials. - Leveraged ETFs and retail exuberance in semiconductors amplify volatility and downside risk. - Fed officials hint at possible rate hikes as core PCE stays at 3.4%, but some expect cuts due to supply-side inflation. - Oil prices drop below $69 WTI despite tensions in the Strait of Hormuz; Iran seeks tolls. - OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027, cooling enthusiasm for AI private valuations. - Fixed income offers attractive real yields; BlackRock recommends lending into credit.

Идеи

Cameron Dawson Директор по инвестициям, New Edge Wealth 3:47

Hyperscaler capex erodes margins; avoid stocks

The hyperscalers (Mag 7) are morphing from capital-light monopolies into capital-intensive, competitive businesses with lower returns on capital. The market is punishing them with multiple compression, and the sustainability of their capex spending is in question as they tap equity and debt markets while their stocks fall.

Alex Altman Глобальный руководитель по акциям, тактические стратегии, Barclays 52:55

Tactically bearish on AI tech trade

A more negative narrative is brewing around the AI theme, supported by massive accumulation of leveraged ETFs in semiconductors that can amplify downside moves. The rally in memory and AI tech looks fragile, and the setup calls for tactical bearishness on the AI/semiconductor complex.

Alex Altman Глобальный руководитель по акциям, тактические стратегии, Barclays 59:22

Long quality factor plays

The quality factor has experienced one of its worst drawdowns and could benefit if hyperscalers bend their capex plans, making quality stocks an attractive long opportunity.

Alex Altman Глобальный руководитель по акциям, тактические стратегии, Barclays 59:52

Long commodity miners on scarcity

Commodities, especially miners, offer a positive opportunity due to extreme scarcity of global listed commodity equities (only $0.4 trillion market cap). The narrative of U.S.-China decoupling and autonomy supports a long position in commodity equities.

Jonathan Krinsky Главный рыночный технический аналитик, BTIG 83:18

Rotate into regional banks, biotech, industrials

As parts of the AI complex roll over, the market is rotating into value/cyclical pockets such as regional banks, biotech, small-cap industrials, and equal-weight S&P. These areas offer better risk/reward than high-flying semiconductor names.

Russ Brownback BlackRock 89:00

Lend into high real yields now

It is the best time to lend. Risk-free real yields are very attractive, credit fundamentals are solid, and new issue concessions provide gifts to investors. Investment-grade fixed income offers strong compounding opportunities.

Vivek Arya Аналитик, BofA Securities 116:24

Buy NVIDIA, Broadcom, Micron for AI

The AI infrastructure cycle will last through the end of this decade, and we are only one-third of the way through. NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Micron are operating below market growth levels with reasonable valuations, making them extremely attractive longs.

NVDA AVGO MU Выс.

Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi Директор по инвестициям, UBS Global Wealth Management 139:28

Long AI infrastructure physical enablers

AI remains the dominant driver of earnings growth, and the most conviction lies in the physical enablers of AI (hardware, infrastructure) where scarcity is increasing. The digital economy faces disruption risk, so focus on AI infrastructure.