Eddie Fishman

The global rearmament trend—Japan doubling defense spending, US proposing a $1.5 trillion budget, Germany rebuilding its military—is driven by the return of geopolitical competition, creating a secular tailwind for defense stocks.

Oil prices have stayed subdued due to strategic stockpile releases and Chinese reserves, but these buffers are being drained. Once inventories hit bottom, there will be a rapid and severe oil price spike, potentially to $150-200/barrel, because the Strait of Hormuz disruption is ongoing and demand destruction is being delayed.