Energy Angst to Keep Pushing Yields Higher: 3-Minutes MLIV
Спикеры
Adam Linton
— Стратег Markets Live, Bloomberg
Adam Linton of Bloomberg's Markets Live sees euro-area yields continuing to rise and UK gilts as vulnerable as energy costs pass through to consumers. He is focused on the European yield curve shape, where front-end anchoring and persistent back-end inflation could shift the curve. He also argues US payrolls will matter less than CPI because the Fed is fixed on inflation.
- Euro-area yields have scope to keep rising; lower borrowing costs are unlikely without a geopolitical off-ramp.
- ECB hikes and supply-driven inflation support the European curve flattening, but the curve shape is worth watching.
- UK gilts are seen as in the firing line due acute energy exposure and consumer cost pass-through.
- The Bank of England's downplayed inflation view is challenged by elevated price data.
- US payrolls are not expected to be a game changer; CPI is seen as the final say for Fed policy.
- The Fed is described as focused on inflation even as labor-market softening is attributed to demographics.
Идеи
Euro-area yields can keep rising.
In the euro area there is scope for yields to keep rising, and barring a major geopolitical off-ramp it is difficult to see the case for lower borrowing costs. The ECB is still hiking, inflation pressure has a supply-driven component, and fiscal and monetary dynamics are weighing on growth and inflation.
Watch European yield curve shape shift.
The shape of the European yield curve is the more interesting story. Curves have flattened through 2026 largely on ECB policy, but markets may be getting over their skis; if the front end anchors while inflation persistence keeps back-end yields rising amid French and German idiosyncratic risk, the curve shape could shift and he is watching it.
UK gilts are in firing line.
UK gilts are definitely in the firing line because the UK has acute energy exposure and there is real evidence of costs being passed on to consumers, which challenges the Bank of England's downplaying of the inflation threat. With fiscal risk and the budget ahead, markets may begin to price a policy mistake.
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 02, 2026, features Adam Linton discussing Euro area government bonds, European yield curve, UKGILT. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Adam Linton · Tickers: Euro area government bonds, European yield curve, UKGILT