Trade of The Week - MacroVoices #533
Спикеры
Patrick Ceresna
— Специалист по деривативам, MacroVoices
Erik Townsend
— Основатель и ведущий, MacroVoices
Patrick Ceresna and Erik Townsend discuss the MacroVoices Trade of the Week, which uses XES call options to position for the oil field services rebuild. They review equity market overextension, a conditional short on the dollar, a long crude oil stance on Hormuz risk, and a near-term bearish view on gold. Uranium is long-term bullish but near-term soft.
- Trade of the Week: Buy Dec 2026 $135 call on XES (oil field services ETF) to capture energy resilience rebuild with defined risk.
- Crude oil: Buy dips on peace-deal headlines; risk of spike to $150+ if Hormuz crisis continues.
- Dollar: Expect retest of 101 then short, as eventual reopening of Strait will weigh on the dollar.
- Gold: Avoid near-term due to inverse correlation with oil; exit longs, wait for lower prices before re-entering.
- Uranium: Long-term bullish but not buying the current dip; seasonal softness likely until August.
- S&P 500: Overextended and overdue for a pullback; semiconductors may be losing momentum after Nvidia earnings.
- Global bond yields are rising across US, Euro, UK, and Japan, signaling inflation fears that may eventually impact equities.
Идеи
Oil field services for energy rebuild
Market is too focused on short-term oil headlines and missing that global energy infrastructure has been exposed as fragile. Even if a peace deal is reached, restarting flows, rebuilding confidence, and hardening the system will take months to years. Oil field services will benefit from this resilience rebuild. However, the XES ETF has already rallied 72% YTD, so a longer-dated call option is used to define risk while maintaining upside participation. The Dec 2026 $135 call at $14.25 premium provides upside above $135 with limited downside to the premium paid, and flexibility to roll down strikes if a pullback occurs.
Short dollar after retest to 101
The dollar index closed the gap at 99.39 and will likely retest the top of the trading range around 101. After that retest, given the eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a longer-term decline in the dollar, it makes sense to short the dollar. The trade is to give it room to run up to the top of the range, then short.
Long crude oil for spike risk
The market underappreciates the risk of a prolonged Hormuz crisis. If a peace deal fails, crude oil could spike well above $130, possibly to $150+. I have a long position via bull call spreads and recently covered short calls on the September contract to leave upside open. I intend to keep buying dips on peace-deal headlines. When the Strait eventually reopens, the initial relief selloff will be a buying opportunity as recovery takes months.
Avoid gold near-term due to oil
Gold is inversely correlated with oil. If oil continues to spike (to $150+ as Morgan predicts), gold will fall further. The next support is 4400 (200-day moving average), but if the oil crisis deepens that level will not hold. Therefore it is time to exit gold longs and wait for much lower prices. Eventually when oil tops, gold will be a big buying opportunity, but not yet.
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This Macro Voices video, published May 21, 2026, features Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend discussing XES, DXY, WTI, GLD. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend · Tickers: XES, DXY, WTI, GLD