Bloomberg Surveillance 7/2/2026

Смотреть на YouTube ↗ | 02 июля 2026, 15:12 | 2:24:15 | Bloomberg Markets

Спикеры

Peter Tchir — Глава макростратегии, Academy Securities

Priya Misra — Портфельный менеджер, J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Gil Luria — Технологический стратег, D.A. Davidson

Jeffrey Rosenberg — Старший портфельный менеджер, BlackRock

Stefan Slowinski — Analyst, BNP Paribas

Nadia Lovell — UBS Global Wealth Management

The July 2, 2026 edition of Bloomberg Surveillance focused on a reported Meta plan to sell excess AI compute capacity, which shook the AI trade and crushed chip and neo-cloud names. OpenAI's proposal to give the U.S. government a 5% stake added to the political dimension. The June payrolls report significantly missed expectations (57k vs 113k), easing Fed rate hike fears but dropping the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Guests expressed bullish views on Meta and Microsoft, bearish views on Nebius and CoreWeave, and advocated for corporate credit and Treasuries. - Meta's pivot to selling AI cloud compute boosted its stock but pressured semiconductor and neo-cloud names like CoreWeave. - OpenAI is in talks to give the U.S. government a 5% equity stake amid rising political pushback. - June payrolls came in at 57,000, well below the 130,000 estimate, while unemployment dipped to 4.2%. - Fed rate hike expectations were pushed back significantly, sending bond yields lower across the curve. - Gil Luria (DA Davidson) upgraded Meta and called Microsoft the winner, while slamming Nebius and CoreWeave. - Peter Tchir and Priya Misra both recommended corporate credit, citing attractive yields and strong demand. - Jeffrey Rosenberg saw the jobs data as a catalyst for lower rates and a bullish bond market. - The AI spending narrative is under scrutiny, with guests debating whether overbuilding risks are surfacing.

Идеи

Peter Tchir Глава макростратегии, Academy Securities 8:15

U.S. tech corporate credit attractive.

U.S. corporate credit, particularly in the technology sector, offers attractive extra spread over government debt. Credit is well protected, demand is strong globally, and the market has been resilient. This makes U.S. tech corporate credit the best place to find yield.

Priya Misra Портфельный менеджер, J.P. Morgan Asset Management 60:20

Investment grade bonds at 6% yield attractive.

Investment grade corporate bonds yielding close to 6% are compelling given a resilient economy, stable spreads, and strong investor inflows. Fixed income offers attractive risk-adjusted returns in a low-hire, low-fire economy.

Gil Luria Технологический стратег, D.A. Davidson 78:40

Meta cloud pivot unlocks profitable compute sales.

Meta's strategic pivot to sell its excess AI computing capacity to third parties transforms unused data centers into a high-margin revenue opportunity, mirroring SpaceX’s successful model. This move turns underutilized assets into a potential $30B+ annual business and is a no-brainer for the stock.

Gil Luria Технологический стратег, D.A. Davidson 83:11

Microsoft is AI orchestration layer leader.

Microsoft is positioned as the orchestration layer for enterprise AI, with Copilot on most desktops enabling model selection and control. Its cloud demand remains strong, and it will show accelerating revenue growth, proving its capex investments are paying off. Microsoft is best placed to benefit from the shift toward open-source and multi-model usage.

Gil Luria Технологический стратег, D.A. Davidson 86:00

Meta threat destroys Nebius/CoreWeave value.

Meta’s entry into the cloud compute supply business is directly threatening Nebius and CoreWeave. Meta accounts for over half of Nebius’s backlog and more than a third of CoreWeave’s, and Meta may renegotiate or not renew these contracts, making those backlogs worth much less.

Jeffrey Rosenberg Старший портфельный менеджер, BlackRock 138:58

Bond market momentum turns to lower rates.

The disappointing payrolls report removes pressure on the Fed to hike and supports the bond market. Momentum is turning toward lower rates as inflation subsides, allowing the Fed to remain patient. This is a positive environment for U.S. Treasuries.