Raised S&P 500 target to 8,300
Raised 12-month S&P 500 price target to 8,300 based solely on higher earnings forecasts, assuming some further valuation compression. Earnings are accelerating from already strong levels, with first-quarter median S&P 500 earnings surprise at 6% (strongest in four years) and earnings revision breadth rising to 22% from 5%. The rolling recovery, AI adoption, fiscal support, and a broadening capex cycle support earnings growth. The correction earlier this year was more significant than appreciated, and the biggest risk may be being too cautious.
Add industrials, financials, consumer discretionary for recovery
Investors should use corrections as opportunities to add exposure to parts of the market that benefit from a rolling recovery: specifically industrials, financials, and consumer discretionary goods. These sectors are supported by the broadening earnings and capex cycle that remains underappreciated, as well as the recovery from the rolling recession.