The Resource Crunch Reshaping Global Power

Summary

Ellen Zentner discusses how resource nationalism is shifting global economic priorities from efficiency to security and resilience. She highlights key friction points including concentration in processing and refining, long lead times for mining, AI's physical infrastructure demands, and directed capital flows. She advises investors to focus on choke points, infrastructure, policy alignment, and risk, concluding that winners will be those who control processing capacity rather than raw resources.

• Resource nationalism is redefining global power dynamics as countries and companies seek to control vulnerability across value chains.
• Processing and refining, not mining, are the tighter constraints in critical mineral supply chains.
• Mining projects can take ~17 years to develop, making supply responses slow.
• AI buildout is a physical story requiring massive data center power demand, expected to double US demand by 2030.
• Policy support is directing capital toward strategically aligned sectors while geopolitical risk raises required returns elsewhere.
• Investors should use a four-part lens: choke points, infrastructure, policy alignment, and risk.
• The electrical grid is becoming increasingly important due to electrification and data center demand.
• Supply disruptions tend to drive longer-term behavioral and policy changes compared to price shocks.