Is The Soft Landing Officially Dead?
Спикеры
Jonah Van Bourg
— Руководитель отдела трейдинга, Cumberland / экс-Vitol
Avi Felman
— Директор, GoldenTree Asset Management
The hosts discuss inflation data, the Fed regime change under Kevin Warsh, and the AI mega-trend. They focus on the memory supercycle and Micron's rally, the Trump-Xi summit and potential chip export deal, and Bitcoin's weak price action. Avi turns cautious on risk, raising cash, while Jonah remains bullish on Micron but also trims positions.
- Hot PPI and inflation data raise concerns about a potential Fed hike cycle.
- Memory stocks, especially Micron, are in a demand-driven supercycle with a bottleneck.
- Jonah is bullish on Micron, seeing it as undervalued on forward earnings.
- Avi reduces risk by raising cash to 30% and trimming positions.
- Avi buys Illumina as a bet on a Trump-Xi trade deal reopening the Chinese market.
- Bitcoin is struggling with weak price action and Avi is staying away.
- The hosts debate the likelihood of a US-China chip export deal, with Jonah assigning 15% probability.
- The overall tone shifts from extreme bullish to cautious monitoring of inflation risks.
Идеи
Long US equities, short rest world.
The US equity market structurally outperforms the rest of the world due to innovation, liquidity, and brain drain from Europe. The best trade is to go long US equities (SPY) and short international equities (VXUS) as an index-to-index pair, which is low volatility and can be levered up.
Long US equities, short rest world.
The US equity market structurally outperforms the rest of the world due to innovation, liquidity, and brain drain from Europe. The best trade is to go long US equities (SPY) and short international equities (VXUS) as an index-to-index pair, which is low volatility and can be levered up.
Micron undervalued on memory supercycle.
Memory is in a genuine demand-driven supercycle with a bottleneck. Micron trades at 35x trailing earnings but earnings could triple within a year, putting it at less than 15x forward. DRAM prices are expected to quadruple in 18 months. Micron is a real rally backed by fundamentals, not a meme, and should continue to rise.
Illumina benefits from China deal.
Illumina (ILMN) is a small genomics company on the list of CEOs traveling with Trump to China. It was banned from selling in China, but if Trump negotiates a deal to allow US chip exports, Illumina could re-enter the Chinese market. The stock hasn't priced this in, making it a short-term trade with asymmetric upside. I bought a small position.
Bitcoin weak, avoid for now.
Bitcoin is showing weak price action, unable to break above 82, and the Clarity Act is not providing support. I am staying away for now, having reduced my GBTC position. Despite long-term bullishness, the near-term risk/reward is unattractive.
Далее
This 1000x Podcast video, published May 13, 2026, features Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman discussing SPY, VXUS, MU, ILMN, BTC. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman · Tickers: SPY, VXUS, MU, ILMN, BTC