Crypto's Quantum Deadline: Who Migrates, Who Gets Drained (56)
Спикеры
Arthur Hayes
— CIO, Maelstrom
Ilia Polosukhin
— Сооснователь, Near Protocol
Charles Guillemet
— CTO, Ledger
The video opens with a brief market clip in which Arthur Hayes argues ETH is attractive and could rally from $3,000 to $5,000. The main interview then focuses on crypto's quantum-resistance deadline with Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet and NEAR co-founder Illia Polosukhin. They explain NIST's 2030 migration deadline, the acceleration in quantum research, and the split between lattice-based and hash-based signatures. NEAR is positioned as an early mover with mainnet ML-DSA support, while Bitcoin's social consensus and Satoshi's coins remain the largest unresolved risk.
- Arthur Hayes early clip: ETH is Maelstrom's largest position after Bitcoin, with a reflexive move above $5,000 possible after a $3,000 break.
- Quantum threat timeline accelerated due to Google research and AI-assisted algorithm improvements.
- NEAR shipped the first major mainnet post-quantum signature support using ML-DSA.
- Ledger released ML-DSA and ML-KEM primitives and plans to support all chain-specific post-quantum signatures.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum lean hash-based, while Solana chooses Falcon, creating blockchain signature fragmentation.
- Satoshi's coins may force Bitcoin to decide between freezing, tail emission, or risking a quantum-triggered market shock.
Идеи
ETH attractive; can break $3,000, reach $5,000
ETH is the most hated large-cap and has not eclipsed its 2021 all-time high; Maelstrom's largest position outside Bitcoin because the downside risk is lower than other cryptos. Once ETH breaks the $3,000 level, the reflexive trade can quickly carry it above $5,000, and his year-end target is within reach.
NEAR leads post-quantum migration with ML-DSA
NEAR's account and access-key design never baked a single curve into the chain, so it could add post-quantum ML-DSA without a hard consensus change. It is the first major blockchain with post-quantum signature support on mainnet, allowing users to hold assets with quantum-secure keys, and its cross-chain MPC abstraction can secure assets on 35+ chains as they migrate.
Solana Falcon quantum path sacrifices hardware support
Solana is choosing Falcon solely to minimize latency because Falcon has the shortest signatures, but Falcon post-quantum signatures will not get hardware support on current secure elements and must be implemented at the firmware level, meaning slower signing and weaker hardware-level guarantees initially.
Bitcoin quantum migration risk remains unresolved
Bitcoin's quantum problem is not just cryptography but social consensus: unmigrated coins, especially Satoshi's early coins with no seed phrase, could be stolen by a future quantum attacker and dumped, causing a liquidity and market crisis. He prefers freezing and tail-emitting unmigrated coins to protect the market and help Bitcoin's security budget, but the community must decide before it is too late.
Далее
This Unchained (Chopping Block) video, published August 24, 2026, features Arthur Hayes, Ilia Polosukhin, Charles Guillemet discussing ETH, NEAR, SOL, BTC. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Arthur Hayes, Ilia Polosukhin, Charles Guillemet · Tickers: ETH, NEAR, SOL, BTC