A Midsummer's Melt-Up | WAYT?
Спикеры
Josh Brown
— Генеральный директор, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Michael Batnick
— Управляющий партнер, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Josh Brown and Michael Batnick discuss SpaceX and Palantir earnings, the broad corporate profit boom, and how the July semiconductor sell-off was a margin-call event that reset the bull market into a healthy midsummer melt-up. They review Robinhood’s event-contract boom, the collapse of a leveraged AI hedge fund, and Michael makes a bull case for Floor & Decor trading on 'less bad' housing news.
- SpaceX beats across all segments but faces heavy lockup unlocks that may pressure the stock below $100.
- Palantir posts unprecedented 93% revenue growth, confirming its role as a leading AI enterprise partner.
- Q2 earnings season shows record breadth, rising estimates, and a market melt-up across sectors.
- The semiconductor sell-off was driven by a hedge fund margin call, not fundamentals, and ETFs saw record inflows signaling dip-buying conviction.
- Leopold Aschenbrenner lost billions due to 4x leverage but retains valuable Anthropic stake and may rebound.
- Robinhood’s event contracts now exceed crypto revenue, raising concerns about young male gambling bundled in brokerage accounts.
- Michael Batnick argues Floor & Decor is a beaten-down housing stock breaking above its 200-day moving average with 'less bad' comps, poised for recovery.
Идеи
Lockup unlocks will drive SPCX below $100
SpaceX faces heavy lockup expirations starting two days after the report, with trillions of shares scheduled to unlock every five weeks through December. Even if only a small fraction of insiders sell, the flood of supply will likely push the stock below $100, making current levels unattractive.
Palantir is a dominant AI enterprise winner
Palantir is becoming one of the leading companies helping enterprises and governments monetize their data with AI. The non-traditional sales model works, and their blockbuster quarter with 93% revenue growth proves corporations are choosing Palantir over handing their alpha directly to large language model providers. The stock's extreme valuation can persist as earnings catch up.
Healthy melt-up rally to continue year-end
The current rally is one of the healthiest in decades, featuring earnings beats in every sector, rotation among leadership, broad participation across styles and sizes, rising revenue growth, and analyst upgrades. The July momentum crash flushed out excess leverage and reset the bull market, setting up a midsummer melt-up that will drive substantial year-end chasing.
Buy semiconductor dip, record ETF inflows
The recent semiconductor sell-off was driven by a concentrated hedge fund margin call, not deteriorating fundamentals. Investors correctly bought the dip, sending record inflows into semiconductor ETFs like SMH; the AI acceleration that Gavin Baker and others report remains intact, making the sector a buy.
Floor & Decor breaking out, priced for worst
Floor & Decor has been crushed 70% due to the housing ice age, but all bad news is priced in. Comparable sales are becoming less bad, and the stock has broken violently above its 200-day moving average. History shows that buying 'less bad' situations after extreme sell-offs can lead to outsized returns when the cycle even slightly improves, without needing a housing boom.
Далее
This The Compound News video, published August 04, 2026, features Josh Brown, Michael Batnick discussing SPCX, PLTR, SPY, SMH, FND. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Josh Brown, Michael Batnick · Tickers: SPCX, PLTR, SPY, SMH, FND