Too Early to Get Off the Wave | TCAF 248
Спикеры
Ryan Detrick
— Главный рыночный стратег, Carson Group
Josh Brown
— Генеральный директор, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Sonu Varghese
— Chief Macro Strategist, Carson Group
Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese join Josh Brown and Michael Batnick to argue the bull market is not over. AI-driven semiconductor earnings, especially from Micron, are surging. Rotation out of mega-cap tech into small caps, industrials, and regional banks is seen as a bullish broadening. Carson Group sold some gold holdings as real yields rise, and they added managed futures as a diversifier. The team believes higher inflation and a wait-and-see Fed are not yet a threat to equities.
- Ryan Detrick says the bull market has more room to run, historically averaging 7 years vs. the current 3.5.
- Micron’s astronomical earnings growth (1440% forward earnings increase) justifies its stock surge and the broader semiconductor momentum.
- The rotation from the Mag 7 to small caps, industrials, and regional banks is happening near all-time highs, which the panel considers a very bullish signal.
- Global fund manager surveys show long semis as the most crowded trade ever, but earnings are backing it up.
- Carson Group tactically sold most of its gold allocation because rising real yields create a strong headwind for gold.
- Managed futures were added to portfolios as an inflation diversifier and have performed well in the current environment.
- Equity issuance is increasing and buybacks from mega-cap tech are declining, but the cash is being spent on real-economy investments like data centers.
- The Fed is expected to stay on hold; a gradual hike would not derail the market, but a rapid catch-up if inflation persists could become a problem.
Идеи
Bull market has more room to run.
This is not a bubble. Bull markets typically last longer than investors expect; since World War II the average bull run has been about 7 years, and this one is only 3.5 years old, making it hard to stop. The market is still riding the wave, with ongoing earnings support and no internal warning signs like the staples rally that preceded the 2022 top.
Overweight technology, earnings justify valuation.
Technology remains a favored overweight. Earnings growth from semiconductors and AI capex continues to justify elevated multiples, and the theme is still the primary momentum driver in the market.
Micron earnings explode, supply stays tight.
Micron Technology is in an extraordinary profit cycle. Forward earnings have surged 1440% since January 2025, revenue jumped 74% quarter-over-quarter and 364% year-over-year, and the company expects DRAM and NAND supply to remain tight beyond 2027. Even after the massive stock run, earnings are catching up, and gross margins are hitting 84%, making the valuation defensible.
Industrials strength is fantastically bullish.
Industrials are ripping even as the Mag 7 stumbles, and the market remains near all-time highs. Historically, relative outperformance of the non-Mag 7 S&P 500 has occurred during deep drawdowns; seeing it happen at record highs is a fantastically bullish development, signaling healthy rotation.
Regional bank breakout signals strong economy.
Regional banks are ripping to new highs. These stocks are the lifeblood of the real economy—reliant on consumers paying bills, home equity lines, credit cards, auto loans, and small business lending—with no capital-markets exposure. Their breakout makes a macro doom case very difficult to support.
Small caps breaking out with broad participation.
Small caps are breaking out on both absolute and relative bases. The cumulative advance-decline line for small caps made a new all-time high alongside price, signaling broad participation. Rotation out of mega-cap tech into more domestically-oriented small caps is a classic healthy market signal.
Momentum stretched but earnings justify continuation.
Momentum factor is historically stretched at the 95th–100th percentile, but unlike past episodes the move is backed by enormous fundamental profit growth—companies like Micron are generating unprecedented earnings, so the momentum can persist even if it remains extended.
Gold hurt by rising real yields.
Gold is facing a clear headwind from rising real yields and a perceived more hawkish Fed. Carson recently sold most of its tactical gold allocation because real yields moving higher has historically punished gold, and the post-war inflation trade is unwinding.
Managed futures diversify inflation risk.
Managed futures have performed very well in this higher-inflation environment. They were added to portfolios as a diversifier specifically because they can thrive when rates stay elevated and inflation runs above trend, filling the role that long-duration bonds normally play in a 60/40 portfolio.
Далее
This The Compound News video, published June 26, 2026, features Ryan Detrick, Josh Brown discussing SPY, XLK, MU, XLI, KRE, IWM, MTUM, GLD, DBMF. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Ryan Detrick, Josh Brown · Tickers: SPY, XLK, MU, XLI, KRE, IWM, MTUM, GLD, DBMF