The Pulse with Francine Lacqua 8/26/2026
Спикеры
Neil Campling
— Аналитик в сфере технологий/TMT
Abeer Abu Omar
— Репортер, Bloomberg London
Simon MacAdam
— Deputy Chief Global Economist, Capital Economics
Ryan Weeks
— Senior Crypto Editor, Bloomberg
Ven Ram
— Репортер/стратег Markets Live, Bloomberg
Caroline Connan
— Bloomberg News
Brandon Murray
— Bloomberg Reporter
Lizzy Burden
— Крипто-репортер, Bloomberg News
Richard Ho
— OpenAI chip chief
Anna Leach
— Chief Economist, Institute of Directors
Tommaso
— Bloomberg Southern Europe Managing Editor
The episode previews Nvidia's earnings as an AI-complex barometer, discusses oil price relief from an Iran-Oman Hormuz framework, and covers ECB/Fed rate debates after Isabel Schnabel's hawkish comments. It also examines US-Canada trade tensions, a Bitcoin rebound tied to the debasement trade, European and UK equity valuations, French fiscal risks, UK business sentiment, and OpenAI's competitive chip push.
- Nvidia results are treated as a macro event for the AI complex, with attention on circular financing and credit risks.
- Iran-Oman temporary Hormuz diplomacy pressures Brent crude lower for a third straight day.
- Simon MacAdam sees limited second-round inflation and little fundamental case for further ECB hikes.
- Natural gas prices are seen as having upside risks from low seasonal storage and peak demand.
- Bitcoin is supported by the debasement trade, ETF inflows, Clarity Act progress and CFTC perps catalysts.
- Ven Ram argues Europe and UK equities offer defensive value and compelling earnings yields.
- Long-dated US Treasuries are seen under pressure from deficit and inflation concerns.
- French political and fiscal risks keep French government bond yields under pressure.
Идеи
Nvidia earnings are AI complex barometer.
Nvidia's earnings are less about the immediate stock move, since realized volatility has been low, and more about acting as a barometer for the entire AI complex; the concern is not Nvidia's own price-earnings valuation but elevated credit default swaps and increasing focus on circular financing and backstopping of AI deals.
Iran-Oman Hormuz framework pressures Brent crude.
Iran and Oman announced a temporary framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and remove mines over the coming 30-60 days, reducing immediate oil supply-disruption fears; that positive diplomatic breakthrough is why Brent crude has fallen for a third straight day.
Eurozone fundamentals don't justify ECB hikes.
The euro-area economy has been resilient but indirect and second-round inflation effects from higher energy costs are not showing up; despite hawkish ECB rhetoric and a nearly fully priced September hike, economic fundamentals do not justify additional ECB rate hikes.
Natural gas has further upside.
Natural gas prices are rising with storage at seasonally low levels heading into peak demand season; higher gas prices risk feeding into electricity and food inflation, implying European natural gas prices should be much higher.
Debasement and regulatory catalysts boost Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's 25% weekly surge reflects a return of the debasement trade: Bessent's Treasury buyback plans are seen as a favorable macro backdrop, ETF buyers have returned, and regulatory catalysts such as Clarity Act progress and CFTC-regulated perpetuals would be bullish.
Europe and UK valuations look compelling.
Europe and the UK look compelling on valuations, with UK and European equity earnings yields near 6%, UK P/E below historical averages, and elevated equity risk premiums over bond yields; regardless of Nvidia's result, Europe works either as a semiconductor/tech catch-up play or as a defensive diversification away from stretched US tech.
Deficit and inflation keep Treasuries under pressure.
Bessent's long-end Treasury buybacks have only triggered short covering and temporary support; longer-term there is no material deficit-cutting or inflation-fighting plan, with PCE running around 3.3% and markets accepting 3% as normal, so long-dated Treasuries remain under persistent pressure.
French fiscal/political risks pressure government bonds.
France's fragile parliamentary situation, rising debt service, deficits around 5% of GDP, and leading presidential candidates lacking credible deficit reduction plans create ongoing upside pressure on French yields.
Далее
This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 26, 2026, features Neil Campling, Abeer Abu Omar, Simon MacAdam, Ryan Weeks, Ven Ram, Caroline Connan discussing NVDA, BNO, Eurozone Government Bonds, UNG, BTC, VGK, EWU, TLT, OAT. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Neil Campling, Abeer Abu Omar, Simon MacAdam, Ryan Weeks, Ven Ram, Caroline Connan · Tickers: NVDA, BNO, Eurozone Government Bonds, UNG, BTC, VGK, EWU, TLT, OAT