The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup
Спикеры
Quinn Thompson
— Соведущий, Forward Guidance / Основатель, Lekker Capital
Felix Jauvin
— Соведущий, Forward Guidance
Felix Jauvin and Quinn Thompson discuss the unwind of the AI momentum trade, triggered by positioning extremes, yen intervention, and headlines around excess AI compute and memory efficiency. They analyze a mixed jobs report and argue that the Fed is mispricing hawkishness given weakening labor and rolling inflation. They detail specific trades: shorting tech/AI, buying gold and SOFR, a tactical long in Bitcoin/MicroStrategy, and a broader shift toward debasement assets.
- An extreme factor implosion hits the AI/semiconductor momentum trade, driven by crowded positioning and negative catalysts.
- Yen intervention and the unwind of reflexive carry-trade flows amplify the rotation.
- The speakers believe the Fed is wrongly hawkish; labor market weakness and falling leading indicators argue against hikes.
- Gold and SOFR are favored to express a fade of hawkish policy expectations.
- A tactical bounce in Bitcoin and MicroStrategy is expected after peak bearish sentiment and a pause in Strategy buying.
- A longer-term portfolio shift from AI bottleneck trades toward debasement assets like gold and Bitcoin is recommended.
- The semiconductor/AI memory trade is placed on watch for a future dip-buying opportunity, but near-term caution is warranted.
Идеи
Avoid AI and semiconductor trades now.
The AI/semiconductor momentum trade is showing major cracks with a four-sigma factor implosion. Positioning was extremely leveraged, and catalysts like Meta selling excess compute and a memory efficiency breakthrough are triggering an unwind. With peak growth and inflation, the setup is dicey. Recommend extreme caution and a negative bias on tech.
Buy gold as real yields peak.
With deficits still at 6% of GDP, debt climbing, and issuance being manipulated, the fundamental case for debasement assets is strong. As economic growth and inflation slow but stay sticky, gold and Bitcoin become much more attractive than over-owned AI bottleneck trades.
Long SOFR to fade hawkish expectations.
The market is still pricing a small chance of hikes, but labor market weakness and rolling inflation argue against it. Fading this hawkishness via the SOFR complex is a good trade.
Sell Mag Seven bounces on AI unwind.
The Magnificent Seven are in a 'hurt locker' because an AI unwind reflexively hits their income from marking up AI lab valuations on their balance sheets. He plans to sell bounces in these names.
Tactical long Bitcoin on bearish exhaustion.
Bearish sentiment on Bitcoin and especially MicroStrategy reached an extreme. With Strategy appearing to pause its buying, the removal of that selling pressure acts like taking a hand off a beach ball underwater, creating room for a tactical bounce even though the asset is not out of the woods.
Далее
This Forward Guidance video, published July 03, 2026, features Quinn Thompson, Felix Jauvin discussing QQQ, SMH, GLD, SOFR futures, MAGS, MSTR, BTC. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Quinn Thompson, Felix Jauvin · Tickers: QQQ, SMH, GLD, SOFR futures, MAGS, MSTR, BTC