Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble | WAYT?
Спикеры
Jeff deGraaf
— Технический аналитик, Renaissance Macro
Josh Brown
— Генеральный директор, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Michael Batnick
— Управляющий партнер, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Jeff deGraaf explains a bubble indicator for indices doubling in two years, applied to KOSPI and semiconductors. Josh and Michael discuss the rational parabolic move in memory stocks, the housing market depression, and Goldman Sachs as a market signal. Michael highlights Netflix as a defensive holding.
- Jeff deGraaf presents a rule: any index doubling in two years is in bubble zone, signaling risk of a V-top.
- KOSPI and SOX have triggered the bubble indicator; Jeff advises reducing position size, not shorting.
- Josh and Michael note that memory stock rallies are justified by quadrupling EPS forecasts.
- Housing-related stocks are in a deep downturn due to stagnant turnover, not price declines.
- Goldman Sachs is seen as a market mood ring; a breakout above 1000 would be bullish.
- Michael Batnick owns Netflix and sees it as a defensive play that could attract flows from momentum names.
- The conversation touches on AI capex becoming an industrial bubble with uncertain winners.
- Micron's rise to the top of the Russell 1000 Value index is highlighted as ironic.
Идеи
Double in 2 years signals bubble.
When an index or sector doubles in value over two years or less, it signals a bubble zone. This is a yellow flag for position sizing, not a sell ticket. The signal suggests elevated risk of a V-shaped drawdown over the next 6-12 months. For the KOSPI (Korean stock index) and the SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index), this condition has been triggered. Investors should reduce exposure and not add risk.
Goldman breakout signals bull market.
Goldman Sachs (GS) is the ultimate capital markets mood ring. If it breaks above the 1000 level with conviction, it signals continued bull market for the next 6 months. If it fails, it implies the cycle may be peaking. The stock is setting up for a breakout near 950-960, and a clear move above that zone would be a bullish market signal.
Netflix is defensive, buy on dips.
Netflix (NFLX) is a defensive name that could catch a bid as money rotates out of momentum stocks. The stock closed a gap and is hammering out a higher low. I own it and would buy more if it drops further. The risk of much lower prices is low.
Далее
This The Compound News video, published May 12, 2026, features Jeff deGraaf, Josh Brown, Michael Batnick discussing SOXX, EWY, GS, NFLX. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jeff deGraaf, Josh Brown, Michael Batnick · Tickers: SOXX, EWY, GS, NFLX