ZB ZB_F US Treasury Bond Futures (30-Year) Загрузка... : Бычьи и медвежьи мнения аналитиков

US Treasury buyback intervention is hard to sustain against fundamentals: US fiscal indiscipline plus AI capital demand, including Broadcom's $60B debt raise, keeps pressure on long-end Treasury yields and encourages betting against the Fed.

Short long-duration Treasuries; Brandt argues markets are structurally mispriced after decades of abnormally low rates, citing 1982 precedent (14.5% mortgages, 17%+ T-Bills) and calling for 30-year yields to normalize to 6-7%.

The author asks for opinions on whether the next leg in rates will be higher ahead of the FOMC meeting, without stating a personal position.

The author notes the 30-year yield is nearing 7.5% but only commits to continuing commentary, not a trade position.

In the latest COT report, large speculators covered 85,000 contracts of 30-year Treasury bond shorts in one week, moving from near the bottom of the range to the middle. This is the first real crack in the crowded everyone-short-the-long-end trade, suggesting a potential reversal in long-end bonds.

Покупайте фьючерсы на казначейские облигации (T-Bond), так как вероятность по графику указывает на то, что недавнее снижение является «медвежьей ловушкой», что предвещает разворот в сторону роста.

1. THE FACT: Most U.S. speculators are betting on either lower or unchanged rates ahead. The speaker is willing to take the other side of that bet, staking money on higher rates, especially on the long side of the yield curve. 2. THE BRIDGE: A contrarian view against the majority of speculators, betting on higher long-term interest rates. This implies a short position in long-term bonds (ZB_F) or a long position in instruments that benefit from rising rates (e.g., short TLT, or direct long on rates). 3. THE VERDICT: Contrarian long position on higher long-term U.S. interest rates.