Pablo Gil

Based on the historical pattern of crypto winters, Bitcoin is expected to continue its decline to around 35,000-40,000 by October-November 2026. Pablo Gil plans to accumulate Bitcoin at 50,000, 45,000, and 40,000, completing his position below 40,000. This strategy aims to achieve a 3:1 risk/reward ratio, targeting a return to the 125,000+ level in the next cycle.

Central banks are rapidly shifting reserves from US Treasuries to gold as a safe haven due to loss of confidence in the US dollar and geopolitical uncertainty, supporting further gold price appreciation.

Ethereum is still in a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. Applying the same historical pattern of diminishing corrections, he expects a drawdown close to 80%, which would take Ethereum to roughly $1,000. There is a significant support zone around $1,000 where he plans to start nibbling with a small initial position, then add more if price moves deeper into that zone, and ideally complete the position if it reaches $1,000. The lower target would represent a near‑80% correction from highs.

Emerging markets can serve as a valuable diversification tool to reduce the risk of excessive dependence on a single region or a narrow group of US mega-cap tech companies. All-time highs do not necessarily mean overvaluation; relative valuations should be analyzed, and emerging markets currently offer a way to build a more balanced portfolio without relying on one story functioning forever.

Japanese equities are a preferred alternative to US stocks in relative terms, as the US loses its market leadership and Japan offers a better relative risk-reward for international diversification.

The defense sector is a winner because the conflict is driving massive increases in military spending globally, including a $1.5 trillion extra defense request in the US and similar pressures in Europe and Asia.

Airlines are one of the most affected sectors by the conflict and would experience a strong rebound if a credible ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz materializes, as travel demand and fuel costs normalize.

The US energy sector (oil and gas producers) is a clear beneficiary because it is not dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, it is the world's largest LNG exporter, and it gains pricing power from higher energy prices caused by the conflict.