Сигналы
28
#462
Альфа-оценка 63.8
Mike Wilson
Директор по инвестициям, Morgan Stanley
Винрейт
60.7%
доходность
+2.6%
Загрузка графиков...
Тикер
Сторона
Упоминания
Первый колл
Цена колла
P&L
Тезис
Тема
Источник
Лонг
18 фев
$203.57
+6.7%
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Фондовые индексы
Лонг
18 фев
$117.02
-2.2%
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Тематические ETF
Лонг
10 июн
$71.81
+1.0%
As the semiconductor trade unwinds, leadership rotates to consumer stocks, transportation stocks, and regional banks, which held up on a down tape and represent the next area of opportunity.
Тематические ETF
Лонг
10 июн
$83.79
-1.0%
As the semiconductor trade unwinds, leadership rotates to consumer stocks, transportation stocks, and regional banks, which held up on a down tape and represent the next area of opportunity.
Тематические ETF
Лонг
24 апр
$83.48
+2.3%
Consumer goods, industrial stocks, and financials were pummeled when oil prices rose, but with earnings broadening, these areas are attractive. Morgan Stanley doubled down on them three weeks ago.
Тематические ETF
Лонг
20 мар
$413.38
-3.9%
Speaker advocates for a portfolio shift from traditional 60/40 to a 60/20/20 model, with the 20% alternatives allocation including gold as a defensive asset. In a fiscal-dominant, inflationary regime, gold protects against currency debasement and serves as a hedge when the defensive function of long-duration bonds is compromised. Long gold as a strategic, non-yielding asset for portfolio diversification and inflation hedging. A return to a Volcker-like Fed prioritizing inflation fighting above all else, driving real rates sharply higher.
Speaker advocates for a portfolio shift from traditional 60/40 to a 60/20/20 model, with the 20% alternatives allocation including gold as a defensive asset. In a fiscal-dominant, inflationary regime, gold protects against currency debasement and serves as a hedge when the defensive function of long-duration bonds is compromised. Long gold as a strategic, non-yielding asset for portfolio diversification and inflation hedging. A return to a Volcker-like Fed prioritizing inflation fighting above all else, driving real rates sharply higher.
Сырьё
Лонг
18 фев
$52.59
+8.8%
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Тематические ETF
Лонг
18 фев
$175.04
-1.2%
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Тематические ETF
Лонг
06 июл
$160.79
+1.6%
The broadening trade is reigniting as oil prices have declined and Fed rate hike fears have eased, leading to lower long-term rates. This environment supports a rotation away from concentrated semiconductor positions into other areas: hyperscalers (large-cap AI-driven tech), biotech, and consumer discretionary sectors. The market adjustment to a new Fed regime is creating wider dispersion but ultimately lower volatility, favoring a broader equity rally beyond just a few mega-cap names.
Тематические ETF
Лонг
06 июл
$138.07
+15.9%
Hyperscalers are expected to stabilize while semiconductor stocks undergo a correction. This ebb and flow is a natural governing factor that prevents the market from becoming unstable. The capex cycle is not over.
Тематические ETF
Лонг
14 авг
$82.03
-0.5%
Wilson says investors should not abandon fixed income but should reduce duration to make the fixed income allocation more valuable and retain diversification without taking too much duration risk.
Облигации и ставки
Лонг
14 авг
$62.02
+4.5%
Wilson says gold has been in a 25-year bull market and is a good place to gravitate toward this year. He describes a Fed reserve-driven commodity rotation that began with gold and silver stocks taking off, then moved through rare earths and metal stocks, energy stocks, and semiconductors, reflecting demand for commodity-like assets to offset equity-like risk.
Тематические ETF
Лонг
03 авг
$547.00
-0.3%
Semiconductors are an early-cycle group and as the market moves to mid-cycle, they may struggle to reclaim leadership for the rest of the year. The easy money in crowded AI beneficiaries may be over, as the market now demands return on invested capital and capex discipline.
Тематические ETF
Шорт
17 июн
$115.70
-22.0%
Распродажа нефти необоснованна, а рынок чрезмерно оптимистичен в отношении сделки с Ираном. Запасы находятся на многолетних минимумах, и как только Азия вернется к нормальным объемам закупок в летний сезон спроса, дефицит предложения проявится вновь. Цены скорректируются вверх.
Сырьё
Шорт
10 июн
$575.66
+5.3%
Semiconductor earnings revision breadth has reached an unsustainably high 70%, a level seen only a few times in 25 years; it has started to roll over and the leveraged trade is unwinding, signaling a near-term correction and shift to new leadership.
Тематические ETF
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У Mike Wilson на Buzzberg отслеживается 28 торговых идей по 27 тикерам с февраля 2026. винрейт 61% по 28 оцененным сигналам, средняя доходность +2.6%. #462 в рейтинге Buzzberg Alpha. Чаще всего покрывает: SPY, XLY, KRE.
