Gasoline prices will remain elevated and are unlikely to fall to $2.50 per gallon by November because Middle East refinery capacity remains offline, product exports are constrained, gasoline cracks are at multi-year highs, demand stays robust, and the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues to limit product flows.
Refined products remain significantly tighter than crude oil due to constrained supplies from the Middle East and Russia, while crude has softened from Chinese import drops, Saudi/UAE rerouting, and SPR releases. This tightness is expected to persist and merits investor attention.
A new fee structure for passing through the Strait of Hormuz is very hard to reverse and will raise shipping costs and oil prices. This tolling concept could spread to other global straits like Gibraltar and Malacca, creating a lasting geopolitical risk premium for crude.