Over the last seven years of rolling supply shocks, commodities have provided the greatest diversification with equity-like returns. Allocating to commodities is an easy way to build portfolio resilience in a volatile environment.
Europe is not rebuilding gas inventories this summer and will enter winter with the lowest coverage in decades. LNG flows are also vulnerable due to Strait of Hormuz risks, creating a precarious situation with greater upside risk than oil in coming months.
The global oil market is in a physical deficit, evidenced by people paying premiums for immediate delivery. Strait of Hormuz disruptions and resilient demand support prices, while a supply glut is far off and political risks have a long tail.
Refined product markets are trading at record premiums and showing real physical constraints. This is where the real stress is and where consumers are being hit, signaling persistent tightness.