NFLX: Fair value or bargain?

=== SUMMARY === - Author u/STierMansierre opened a long position in NFLX at $87, citing a recent dip and a thesis centered on competitor struggles (especially WB/Paramount debt) and Netflix’s strength in live/PPV content. - The post references the WB deal fallout as a net positive for Netflix, while noting that P/E of 28 is not a great indicator but the stock has room to grow as competitors falter. - Quality assessment: Moderate DD – author provides a clear personal position and qualitative reasoning, but lacks detailed financial analysis; leans toward speculative conviction. === SENTIMENT === BULLISH === TRADE IDEAS === NFLX - LONG | confidence: 0.80 | sentiment: +0.70 Speaker: u/STierMansierre Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Author entered a long position at $87, near the 52-week low of $76; P/E ~28; believes the WB deal overhang is fading and competitors (Paramount/WB) are vulnerable to debt. 2. THE BRIDGE: The recent dip is viewed as a buying opportunity because Netflix’s fundamentals remain solid and the live/PPV pivot offers growth, while rivals are floundering. 3. THE VERDICT: Netflix is a bargain at current levels given the competitive tailwind and the market mispricing of the WB deal impact. 4. RISKS: Further downside momentum (stock hit $76 recently); consumer spending slowdown impacting subscriber growth; content IP misses or pricing backlash. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - Started position at $87, bought dip - Competitor debt stress benefits NFLX - Live/PPV expansion is growth driver - P/E 28 not extreme for streaming - WB deal fallout already priced in CRM - WATCH | confidence: 0.50 | sentiment: +0.30 Speaker: u/STierMansierre Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Author notes “loving all these CRM posts, that price is looking much more enticing at close today,” implying a perceived value opportunity but without explicit position or deep analysis. 2. THE BRIDGE: The price decline has made CRM attractive to the author based on other Reddit discussions, but no specific thes