I screened for stocks with 10%+ True FCF yield across their entire history. Here's what survived and what the data actually says.
u/JoeInOR ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· May 27, 2026 at 12:44
· ⬆ 18 pts
· 💬 7 comments
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The post screens for stocks with >10% True FCF yield over at least 10 years, highlighting Comcast (CMCSA), Harley-Davidson (HOG), and Molson Coors (TAP) as the most interesting survivors.
The author argues CMCSA offers a 20%+ FCF yield with strong GDP correlation, HOG has exceptional capital allocation and low tangible book, and TAP trades below book with never‑negative FCF.
Quality assessment: Well‑researched DD using 15 years of SEC XBRL data, with clear methodology and specific data points.
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Built a screen using 15 years of SEC XBRL data. Filters: True FCF yield (OCF minus CapEx minus SBC) above 10% for the entire history of the stock, at least 10 years of data, P/B between 0.1 and 10, no financials, real CapEx present.
Got a list with some garbage and some names worth looking at. Added Sirius, Ford and Mattel manually since I wanted them in the comparison.
The interesting ones: CMCSA, HOG, TAP. Here's what I found on each:
**Comcast:** 20%+ True FCF yield. Revenue correlation to US nominal GDP is 96% over the last 5 years. It wasn't always this way, the empire-building era (2012-2017) kept correlation negative. Now it's one of the most NGDP-integrated businesses I've found. The bear case (fiber competition, Peacock losses, debt costs) is real and so is the yield.
**Harley-Davidson:** 9.7% of float retired in a single year and 13.4% total shareholder yield. 0.79x tangible book with almost no goodwill - the manufacturing business is essentially debt-free. While the brand is aging, the capital allocation seems exceptional.
**Molson Coors:** Trading below book. In 17 years FCF never went negative. 10.2% total shareholder yield. Is it safe? Well, it's beer.
Also added a rolling 5-year NGDP correlation layer which shows Shutterstock losing its cash generation ability in real time (FCF went negative in 2024 while revenue kept growing.
Methodology in the piece. Happy to share the data: [https://cavemanscreener.substack.com/p/lookin-for-value-in-all-the-wrong](https://cavemanscreener.substack.com/p/lookin-for-value-in-all-the-wrong)
20%+ True FCF yield; 96% revenue correlation to US nominal GDP over the last 5 years. High, stable FCF yield tied to nominal GDP growth suggests the market is mispricing a defensive cash machine. Comcast is a deep‑value play with a wide moat from its NGDP‑integrated revenue base. Fiber competition, Peacock losses, rising debt costs, regulatory changes.
Trading below book value; FCF never negative in 17 years; 10.2% total shareholder yield. A steady, never‑negative cash generator available below liquidation value offers a margin of safety. Molson Coors is a boring, resilient value stock with a strong yield. Changing consumer tastes (craft/import share), high leverage, commodity cost inflation.
9.7% float retired in a single year; 13.4% total shareholder yield; 0.79x tangible book with negligible goodwill. Aggressive buybacks at a discount to tangible book signal management believes the stock is deeply undervalued. Harley‑Davidson offers a rare combination of cheap assets and shareholder‑friendly capital allocation. Aging core demographic, declining motorcycle demand, brand erosion.
This Reddit post, published May 27, 2026,
features u/JoeInOR
discussing CMCSA, TAP, HOG.
3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.