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MercadoLibre (MELI): cash compounding machine that grows like crazy with a low P/FCF

u/Equivalent_Fan1344 · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · May 27, 2026 at 15:14 · ⬆ 26 pts · 💬 28 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
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Summary

  • Post analyzes MercadoLibre (MELI) as a deep-value growth compounder, highlighting a 7.1x P/FCF versus 47.7% FCF CAGR and consensus EPS growth of 43-51% through 2029.
  • Author argues the market is pricing in a sharp growth slowdown that analyst estimates contradict, making the risk/reward skewed to the upside despite margin compression and $18.8B net debt.
  • Quality assessment: Well-researched DD with specific financial metrics, cited sources, and counterarguments to common pushbacks; uses a quality scorecard tool and provides a coherent thesis.
Score 26
Comments 28
Upvote % 91%
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Ideas
u/Equivalent_Fan1344 Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Current P/FCF is 7.1x, FCF grew from $2.49B (2022) to $11.82B (TTM), and consensus EPS growth estimates are 43%/42%/51% for 2027–2029. If FCF continues growing near analyst estimates, the forward P/FCF could drop to 2–3x in 2–3 years – a valuation more typical of distressed firms, not a 31% revenue CAGR compounder. Market is overly discounting future growth; the FCF yield and forward P/E compression create a compelling long opportunity at current levels. Margins could structurally deteriorate if credit portfolio losses mount; net debt of $18.8B may become problematic if growth slows; currency or regulatory risks in Latin America.
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This Reddit post, published May 27, 2026, features u/Equivalent_Fan1344 discussing MELI. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/Equivalent_Fan1344  · Tickers: MELI