=== SUMMARY ===
- The post outlines a bearish options strategy (call credit spread) on $VCX, betting the stock will collapse after a share lockup period ends in September 2024.
- The author's thesis is that the current high price is artificially maintained by low float and prohibitive short-selling costs, and that the expiration of the lockup will unleash selling pressure, driving the price down toward its Net Asset Value (NAV) of ~$20.
- Quality assessment: Speculation with some data points (NAV, borrow fee, lockup date). It is a reasoned hypothesis but relies heavily on the lockup being the sole catalyst and the market mispricing options.
=== SENTIMENT ===
BEARISH
=== TRADE IDEAS ===
VCX - SHORT | confidence: 0.85 | sentiment: -0.9
Speaker: u/Virtual_Seaweed7130
Thesis:
1. THE FACT: VCX has a high borrow fee (800% rate), low float, and a share lockup period ending in September 2024. Its NAV is ~$20 vs. a share price ~$380.
2. THE BRIDGE: The lockup expiration will drastically increase the float, allowing restricted shareholders to sell, which should collapse the price toward NAV and has not been priced into October-dated options.
3. THE VERDICT: Selling a call credit spread (Sell $70c / Buy $200c exp 10/17) profits if VCX is below $70 at expiration, which the author views as nearly guaranteed post-lockup.
4. RISKS: Early exercise on the short call (deemed irrational), a "miracle" business development that justifies a >3x NAV valuation, or option illiquidity causing poor fills.
Timeframe: medium-term (October 2024 expiration)
Key Points:
- Lockup ends Sept, options expire Oct
- Bet on float increase causing price drop
- Avoids costly short borrow fees
- Targets price fall to NAV (~$20)
- Uses defined-risk options spread
=== COMMENTS SUMMARY ===
The top comments provide no substantive counter-arguments or additional data. The highest-rated comment is a meme ("put the fries in the bag"), and the other is an automated TLDR. The community discussion, as sampled, off
Оценка15
Комментарии48
% апвоутов69%
▶ Полный текст поста
Hey retards following $VCX,
A lot of people asked on my last DD when VCX was at \~380 a share how to short.
Not only are shares difficult to find, they’re expensive. Fee rate of 800%, so you pay 3% a day just to short shares. Stupid. So the stock price is staying massively elevated because shorts can’t short.
How can you bet against VCX without paying this tax?
You could buy puts, which are stupidly expensive. The 70P 10/17exp trades for $33, so you only profit when share price is below $44. NAV is at $20/share, but that’s cutting it close.
The calls, despite having incredibly low volume, are stupidly mispriced.
I can sell the $70 10/17c and buy the $200 10/17c for $13,000 of collateral to receive $2,500 on expiration if the stock is below $70. 2,500 return on 13,000 collateral isn’t great, but the return is practically free money.
The call spread pays out under 70/share. VCX’s share lockup period ends in September - my calls expire in October. **The market has not correctly priced in the share lockout.** the float will skyrocket and the shares will inevitably collapse to a reasonable NAV multiple by then as restricted shareholders finally dump.
At under $20/share of NAV today, VCX would need to pull off a miracle to trade over $70/share after the lockup ends. That’s triple NAV, and a lot of that NAV won’t even be in sexy private companies anymore.
When I say this bet cannot lose, I cannot reasonably conceive of a situation where this company trades at 3x+ NAV despite all shareholders being able to sell. The only reason we see the price today is low float, high borrow fee shenanigans.
The contracts are ultra low volume so be careful how you get filled. I think the algorithms haven’t correctly calculated how the October expiration will be affected by the share lockout ending.
Tl;Dr Short VCX is expensive so use a call spread, free money if you use a spread expiring after the lockup ends.
I’m selling two contracts.
Edit: Lots of geniuses talking about early exercise on the deep itm short call. Goes without saying that this is incredibly unlikely because there’s no dividend to justify early exercising for, and it’s otherwise a completely irrational decision that would immediately reward me with all of the IV of the call while realizing any gains/losses.
Has zero impact on the position here.
VCX has a high borrow fee (800% rate), low float, and a share lockup period ending in September 2024. Its NAV is ~$20 vs. a share price ~$380. The lockup expiration will drastically increase the float, allowing restricted shareholders to sell, which should collapse the price toward NAV and has not been priced into October-dated options. Selling a call credit spread (Sell $70c / Buy $200c exp 10/17) profits if VCX is below $70 at expiration, which the author views as nearly guaranteed post-lockup. Early exercise on the short call (deemed irrational), a "miracle" business development that justifies a >3x NAV valuation, or option illiquidity causing poor fills.
This Reddit post, published April 02, 2026,
features u/Virtual_Seaweed7130
discussing VCX.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.