Tech Matters More Than Financials: 3-Minutes MLIV

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 15, 2026 at 08:29  |  3:09  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Mark Cudmore — Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist

Summary

Mark Cudmore argues the earnings season will support the AI trade unless hyperscalers cut CapEx, while extreme herding in rates and structural oil supply disruptions create additional market implications.

  • Strong earnings season expected but driven by hyperscalers’ CapEx, not banks.
  • Hyperscaler CapEx cuts would be a game changer and end the AI trade.
  • Extreme herding observed in front-end rates paid into CPI, leading to rapid reversal.
  • Oil prices are getting a structural premium from trade war tit-for-tat and Russia-Ukraine disruptions.
  • Yesterday's CPI is likely old news if oil prices remain elevated.
Ideas
Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 0:52
AI trade strong unless hyperscalers cut CapEx
The earnings season will be positive for the AI trade as long as hyperscalers do not announce cuts to their CapEx plans. Currently, hyperscalers are expected to keep spending, supporting AI stocks. However, any signal of CapEx reduction would be a massive game changer and end the AI trade.
AI trade HIGH
Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 2:35
Oil prices to rise on supply disruptions
Ongoing tit-for-tat trade actions and geopolitical disruptions in Russia-Ukraine are adding a structural premium to oil prices. Supply disruptions will continue, making oil more expensive than hoped, pointing to higher oil prices.
WTI HIGH
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published July 15, 2026, features Mark Cudmore discussing AI trade, WTI. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Mark Cudmore  · Tickers: AI trade, WTI