Every hammer sees a nail

Geo Chen · Fidenza Macro · April 07, 2026 at 10:15 · ⏱ 3 min read  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author highlights a significant geopolitical risk involving a US threat to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. He then notes he has just returned from vacation and his personal PnL is back at its high-water mark, but provides no market analysis or trade ideas.
  • •A geopolitical crisis is brewing, with the US threatening to strike Iran's infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened.
  • •The author mentions returning from a relaxing vacation in the Maldives.
  • •The author notes their PnL has recovered to its high-water mark.
Read time 3 min
Length 3,015 chars
Category macro
Ideas
Geo Chen Global macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
Gold is held as a relative-value hedge against oil exposure; the author hopes gold declines less than oil rallies, contributing to a grinding P&L.
GLD MED
Geo Chen Global macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
The Strait of Hormuz closure creates extreme oil supply risk; the author expects a squeeze to $140 by May contract expiry if no resolution emerges.
USO HIGH
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This newsletter, published April 07, 2026, features Geo Chen discussing GLD, USO. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Geo Chen  · Tickers: GLD, USO