Asymmetrical Bets
· Asymmetrical Bets
· August 03, 2026 at 12:31
· ⏱ 1 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The AI semis trade is trying to recover after the SOX's worst drawdown since 2022, and last week's stronger earnings plus capex guidance raises from Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and TSMC created a bid. The newsletter argues this week's memory, optics, and power earnings are the test of whether the rebound is real, but the specific seven names are not included in the provided text.
•The SOX fell roughly 24% from late June highs, the sharpest semiconductor drawdown since 2022.
•Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and TSMC all raised capex guidance, which helped the market "finally caught a bid."
•The article calls this one of the biggest earnings weeks of the quarter, with seven reports across memory, optics, and power.
•The newsletter says it picked seven names investors should watch for potential earnings trades, but the visible text does not list the tickers.
The article says 'Capex guidance was raised by Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and TSMC and then we finally caught a bid,' making TSMC a directly named supplier whose raised capex signals durable leading-edge
The article says 'Capex guidance was raised by Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and TSMC and then we finally caught a bid,' making TSMC a directly named supplier whose raised capex signals durable leading-edge/AI demand and bolsters the semiconductor trade.
Risk: If this week's memory/optics/power earnings fail to confirm demand, TSMC's high expectations leave it vulnerable to the same sentiment reversal that drove the July SOX drawdown.
This newsletter, published August 03, 2026,
features Asymmetrical Bets
discussing TSM.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.