US-Iran War Risks Repeated Cycles of Fighting

Summary

Becca Wasser, Bloomberg Economics Defense Lead, argues the US-Iran conflict is becoming a protracted war because neither side can win militarily and shifting US objectives make durable diplomacy hard. She expects repeated cycles of fighting with pauses that allow adaptation and rearmament, likely geographic expansion and possible direct talks only later. The economic pressure and Hormuz blockade may broaden, with implications for oil supply risk and global escalation.

• Becca Wasser says the US-Iran conflict is a protracted, multi-round war and neither side can win decisively.
• Shifting US objectives and Iran's survival aim complicate diplomacy; direct talks are needed for durable settlement.
• Pauses allow both sides to adapt and rearm, fueling escalation and possibly bloodier rounds.
• Economic tools and the Strait of Hormuz blockade could expand farther to target Iranian oil shipments.
• The war may broaden geographically or draw in more belligerents, with China a key watchpoint.
• Prolonged blockade and material losses create US military readiness strains.
• Bombing into submission is not working and unresolved issues could persist.