SpaceX Stock Crashed. Starship Flight 13 Didn’t.

Summary

SpaceX stock has crashed over 50% from its IPO high, raising questions about overvaluation. The hosts dissect the bear case (low float, supply unlocks, massive losses) and the bull case (successful Starship Flight 13, AI compute business, rapid manufacturing). They conclude the market is mispricing a generational company and maintain a long-term bullish stance.

• SpaceX IPO'd at $135, hit $225, and fell to an all-time low of $107 amid valuation concerns.
• Bear case: only 4% float initially, 56% supply unlocks by year-end, $4.5B net loss, and high trailing P/S multiple.
• Starship Flight 13 successfully deployed real Starlink V3 satellites and achieved a soft ocean landing.
• SpaceX’s AI pillar includes Grok models, massive GPU compute clusters, and $60B in neocloud sales contracts.
• Rapid manufacturing iteration (Starship built in 14 days, 7 in parallel) enables exponential capacity growth.
• Hosts compare the setup to Meta and Uber post-IPO recoveries, expecting long-term upside for patient investors.
• Ejaaz highlights the AI energy thesis (infinite solar energy from space) as a powerful long-term driver.
• Josh emphasizes SpaceX’s unique hardware manufacturing monopoly and compounding efficiency gains.