How the Treasury's bond intervention impacted markets

Summary

Rick Santelli discusses whether the Fed will follow market pricing, arguing that a 66% probability in fed funds futures is not a coin toss and the Fed would likely deliver a quarter-point move if the meeting were held today. He also argues that U.S. interest rates will continue to rise as normalization, deficits, and geopolitical oil risk keep pressure on yields. The group debates whether Treasury buybacks are effective or whether the U.S. is repeating Japan's failed yield-suppression playbook.

• Rick Santelli says markets are right on Fed pricing and the Fed won't go against 66% fed funds futures odds.
• He expects U.S. interest rates to keep going up.
• He frames rising yields as normalization after a manipulated zero-rate decade.
• He cites debt and deficits and $90 oil with Iran conflict as pressure points.
• Treasury buyback programs are debated as intervention that has not stopped yields returning to 5%.
• Kelly Evans argues the U.S. risks copying Japan's ill-fated yield-control policies.
• Housing affordability is called the bigger issue rather than mortgage rate levels.