Bitcoin at $79K: Bottom Confirmed or One More Crash Coming?
Спикеры
Michael Terpin
— Основатель и CEO, Transform Ventures
Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures, joins John Gillen to discuss Bitcoin after its rally to $79K. He now assigns an 80% chance that the June/July low marked Bitcoin's bottom but expects a near-term retrace toward $70K or the $60Ks before the next bull phase. The conversation also covers his four-season Bitcoin cycle framework, gold and silver's supercycle, altcoin cycles, and custody risks in Bitcoin ETFs.
- Bitcoin is up over 20% in the period around the recording, trading near $79K.
- Michael sees 80% odds that the June/July capitulation low was the cycle bottom, but not a straight move to $100K.
- He expects a possible retrace to $70K or the $60Ks and says a weekly close above roughly $79.5K is needed for bull confirmation.
- Gold and silver are likely in a commodity supercycle that began in 2023.
- Altcoin cycles are restarting with narrative rotation, and BNB is highlighted as uniquely making new all-time highs each cycle while Ethereum underperforms.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs carry counterparty and bail-in risk because they are paper claims on Bitcoin.
- Michael's four-season Bitcoin framework suggests the next major Bitcoin peak could arrive around 2029 if the historical 35-month bottom-to-top rhythm holds.
Идеи
Bitcoin bottom likely confirmed; bull resumes
Despite the likely bottom, he does not expect Bitcoin to reach $100K by the end of this year. He sees Bitcoin moving sideways for a couple of months and likely retracing part of the rally, probably flirting with $70K or the $60Ks, with a 20% chance of a new low. Bull market confirmation still requires a weekly close above roughly $79.5K.
Gold and silver in multi-year supercycle
Gold and silver are now probably in a commodity supercycle that began in 2023, driven by monetary debasement, money printing, and a structural repricing of scarcity. This resembles the 1970s gold supercycle and supports sustained upside.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs carry seizure risk
Spot Bitcoin ETFs represent a paper claim on Bitcoin rather than actual on-chain Bitcoin. In a major crisis or government bail-in, ETF and bank-held Bitcoin could be nationalized, seized, or converted into claims, so holders may not get their Bitcoin back. This creates custody and counterparty risk for spot Bitcoin ETF holders.
New altcoin cycle starting; narratives rotate
Altcoins are at the bottom/start of a new altcoin cycle, with each cycle led by a fresh narrative. After prior narratives like DeFi, NFTs, and the metaverse, the new cycle is starting around areas such as AI, RWA, and next-gen decentralized projects. He still suggests limiting alt exposure to no more than about 30% of a crypto portfolio.
BNB consistently stronger than Ethereum
Among major altcoins, BNB is the only one that has made a new all-time high every cycle, while Ethereum failed to exceed its prior $4,800 high and only reached about $4,000 last cycle. Ethereum is also way underperforming Bitcoin. This creates a relative preference for BNB over Ethereum.
BNB consistently stronger than Ethereum
Among major altcoins, BNB is the only one that has made a new all-time high every cycle, while Ethereum failed to exceed its prior $4,800 high and only reached about $4,000 last cycle. Ethereum is also way underperforming Bitcoin. This creates a relative preference for BNB over Ethereum.
Далее
This Milk Road Macro video, published September 01, 2026, features Michael Terpin discussing BTC, GLD, SILVER, Spot Bitcoin ETFs, ALTCOINS, BNB, ETH. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Michael Terpin · Tickers: BTC, GLD, SILVER, Spot Bitcoin ETFs, ALTCOINS, BNB, ETH