Bloomberg Surveillance 7/29/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 29, 2026 at 15:40  |  2:24:17  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Julian Emanuel — Evercore ISI
Dan Suzuki — Investment Strategist, Schroders
Amy Gower — Metals & Mining Commodities Strategist, Morgan Stanley
Gil Luria — Technology Strategist at D.A. Davidson
Kay Haigh — Head of Content, CoinDesk

Summary

The episode covers a triple threat: the Federal Reserve decision under Chair Warsh, big tech earnings from Microsoft and Meta, and an oil surge on renewed US-Iran hostilities. The AI trade faces a critical test as hyperscalers must justify massive capex, while a rotation into financials and small caps gains momentum. Geopolitical risk lifts crude and commodities, and gold is seen pushing toward $4,450 on central bank buying.

  • Fed expected to hold but uncertainty high due to Warsh's limited forward guidance and hawkish dissent risk.
  • Microsoft and Meta earnings seen as pivotal for AI capex narrative; hyperscaler bonds highlighted as safe credit.
  • SK Hynix profit miss triggers Korean equity volatility, leverage washout, and potential semiconductor bottom.
  • Oil surges above $90 on US-Iran escalation and Strait of Hormuz closure, pressuring inflation expectations.
  • Rotation from AI trade into financials, small caps, and insurance stocks driven by earnings strength.
  • Gold, copper, and silver all constructive: gold supported by central bank buying, copper by data‑center demand.
  • Geopolitical instability and oil shocks keep the Fed in an uncomfortable new normal with elevated risk premia.
Ideas
Julian Emanuel Evercore ISI 5:18
Semis may stabilize after washout.
Earnings misses in semis could form a bottom and end the Korean retail selling that has driven the selloff, leading to stabilization in the semiconductor sector and supporting the broader AI trade.
SMH MED
Julian Emanuel Evercore ISI 5:38
Hyperscalers set for positive earnings reaction.
The bar for hyperscalers Microsoft and Meta has been lowered sufficiently after recent sell-offs, setting the stage for a positive earnings reaction that could reignite the AI bull case.
META MSFT MED
Julian Emanuel Evercore ISI 22:51
Insurance stocks hitting new highs.
Insurance stocks, part of the negative beta basket, are making new all-time highs and acting as a defensive rotation away from AI, driven by strong consumer demand and appetite for equities.
KIE MED
Dan Suzuki Investment Strategist, Schroders 56:06
Financials and small caps benefit from rotation.
As the AI trade faces risks from high capex, weak moats, and pricing pressures, money is rotating into financials and small caps which are posting strong earnings and accelerating growth, representing an outperforming anti-AI trade.
IWM XLF HIGH
Amy Gower Metals & Mining Commodities Strategist, Morgan Stanley 81:52
Gold to $4,450 on central bank buying.
Central bank gold purchases are accelerating (China bought 15 tons in June), and if the Fed holds rates, ETF outflows could reverse, paving the way for gold to reach $4,450/oz by Q4.
GLD HIGH
Amy Gower Metals & Mining Commodities Strategist, Morgan Stanley 84:50
Copper attractive on strong demand.
Copper has very strong physical demand from data centers, grid upgrades, and constrained supply, and it is holding up better than gold, making it the most attractive commodity among metals.
COPPER HIGH
Amy Gower Metals & Mining Commodities Strategist, Morgan Stanley 86:13
Silver to catch up, ETF buying possible.
Silver has lagged gold with a high gold/silver ratio, and a copper rally would pull silver up; ETF buying could finally engage, providing significant upside.
SILVER MED
Gil Luria Technology Strategist at D.A. Davidson 116:00
Buy discounted hyperscaler corporate bonds.
The corporate bonds of mega-cap hyperscalers Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are extremely creditworthy because they can scale back capex at will, making any current discount a relatively safe investment.
Microsoft Corp Bonds Google Corp Bonds AMZN MED
Kay Haigh Head of Content, CoinDesk 137:25
Japanese bond yields to rise.
Avoid JGBUX: the Bloomberg segment is less constructive on Japanese government bonds as BOJ policy normalizes and yields may stay elevated or rise, but no explicit short trade is stated.
JGBUX MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published July 29, 2026, features Julian Emanuel, Dan Suzuki, Amy Gower, Gil Luria, Kay Haigh discussing SMH, META, MSFT, KIE, IWM, XLF, GLD, COPPER, SILVER, Microsoft Corp Bonds, Google Corp Bonds, AMZN, JGBUX. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Julian Emanuel, Dan Suzuki, Amy Gower, Gil Luria, Kay Haigh  · Tickers: SMH, META, MSFT, KIE, IWM, XLF, GLD, COPPER, SILVER, Microsoft Corp Bonds, Google Corp Bonds, AMZN, JGBUX