Fed hold and AI spending remain the market's biggest focus

Summary

Kevin Mahn and Daniel Carter discuss the Fed’s likely rate hold and the market’s focus on AI spending. Mahn argues that heavy AI spenders will outperform under-spenders, while Carter sees persistent bond market volatility due to reduced Fed forward guidance.

• Both guests agree the Fed will hold rates for the rest of the year.
• Kevin Mahn notes the Fed under Kevin Warsh may reform communication and data usage.
• Mahn attributes recent tech volatility to AI spending fears rather than higher rates.
• Mahn asserts that companies not spending enough on AI risk falling behind in the AI race.
• Daniel Carter highlights that lack of Fed forward guidance is causing sustained bond market volatility.
• Carter notes hyperscaler capex drives short-term demand for memory, labor, and services.
• The long-term inflation impact of AI (deflationary vs. disinflationary) remains unresolved.