Trading Desk - July 23rd 2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 23, 2026 at 16:02  |  17:46  |  Macro Voices
Speakers
Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Michelle Begnan — Co-host, MacroVoices Trading Desk

Summary

Patrick Ceresna and Michelle Begnan review markets on the MacroVoices trading desk. Patrick presents a hedged long gold trade using GLD options after a 30% correction, warns of S&P 500 vulnerability to systematic selling, and highlights a bullish breakout in the US Dollar along with EUR weakness and USD/JPY strength. Michelle analyzes copper's positioning reset and bullish fundamentals. They also discuss crowded equity positioning, oil's short squeeze, and sticky gold specs.

  • Trade of the week: Long GLD at $376 with a hedged option collar (downside protection at 370-350, capped upside at 415).
  • S&P 500 vulnerable to CTA/systematic selling; key watch level 7,400, break could trigger correction to 7,000.
  • US Dollar Index attempting bullish breakout above 101.50 after consolidating above a 15-month range.
  • EUR/USD decisively weak; sustained break below 1.14 could target 1.12-1.11.
  • USD/JPY breaking out to 163 handle, described as 'shockingly strong'.
  • Copper spec positioning reset through time, not price breakdown, as physical market stays tight, setting up a bullish breakout.
  • Large and small specs remain heavily long equities, raising downside acceleration risk on a catalyst.
  • Crude oil rallied 35% in three weeks, squeezing shorts, but fair value zone and directional trade are uncertain.
Ideas
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 0:57
Long gold hedged after 30% correction
Gold has corrected 30% over 6 months, clearing excess, but the short-term trend has not yet turned bullish. To start leaning into gold positioning, structure a hedged long in GLD at $376 with a short-term risk corridor: buy downside protection from $370 to $350 and cap upside at $415, total cost $1.75 per share, dampening drawdown risk while maintaining exposure to the first 10% upside.
GLD HIGH
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 4:00
S&P 500 vulnerable to corrective selloff
S&P 500 has traded sideways while CTA and systematic trader flip points have risen like a trailing stop. A 150-200 point drop could trigger forced selling. The key level to watch is 7,400; a sustained break below could start a feedback loop of systematic selling toward 7,000. Earnings from MAG7 have not yet provided a bullish tailwind, leaving the market vulnerable.
SPY MED
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 5:48
Long US Dollar on bullish breakout
The US Dollar Index has formed a flagging formation above its 50-day moving average and has already broken out of a 15-month trading range. Consolidation above that range is technically bullish. A decisive break above 101.50 would confirm a new bull advance, supported by broad-based strength against cross currencies.
US Dollar Index (DXY) MED
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 6:28
Watch EUR/USD breakdown below 1.14
The euro remains decisively weak against the US dollar. A sustained breakdown below 1.14 on EUR/USD could lead to a rapid move toward the 1.12 or 1.11 level in the next few weeks, aligning with the broader USD strength theme.
EUR/USD MED
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 6:42
Long USD/JPY on strong breakout
USD/JPY has broken out of a multi-week trading range to the upside, hitting the 163 handle. The move is described as 'shockingly strong' and signals continued bullish momentum for the pair.
USD/JPY MED
Michelle Begnan Co-host, MacroVoices Trading Desk 13:22
Long copper on positioning reset
Copper speculative positioning has reset from an extreme through time (sideways price action), not a price breakdown, while physical fundamentals remained strong (falling Chinese inventories, rising import premiums). With the COT signal score back to 75 and room to rebuild positions, copper is entering a breakout attempt with healthy underlying support.
COPPER MED
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This Macro Voices video, published July 23, 2026, features Patrick Ceresna, Michelle Begnan discussing GLD, SPY, US Dollar Index (DXY), EUR/USD, USD/JPY, COPPER. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Patrick Ceresna, Michelle Begnan  · Tickers: GLD, SPY, US Dollar Index (DXY), EUR/USD, USD/JPY, COPPER